ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2016
Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed, 11 citations in OpenAlex.
- Vaccination Strategies against Seasonal Influenza in Long Term Care Setting: Lessons from a Mathematical Modelling Study.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Optimal vaccination at high reproductive numbers: sharp transitions and counterintuitive allocations.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Evidence Synthesis for Stochastic Epidemic Models.Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics · 2018Article
- Modelling and parameter inference of predator-prey dynamics in heterogeneous environments using the direct integral approach.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Intensified surveillance during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Israel resulted in large virological and serological datasets, presenting a unique opportunity for investigating the pandemic dynamics. We employ a conditional likelihood approach for fitting a disease transmission model to virological and serological data, conditional on clinical data. The model is used to reconstruct the temporal pattern of the pandemic in Israel in five age-groups and evaluate the factors that shaped it. We estimate the reproductive number at the beginning of the pandemic to beR= 1.4. We find that the combined effect of varying absolute humidity conditions and school vacations (SVs) is responsible for the infection pattern, characterized by three epidemic waves. Overall attack rate is estimated at 32% (28-35%) with a large variation among the age-groups: the highest attack rates within school children and the lowest within the elderly. This pattern of infection is explained by a combination of the age-group contact structure and increasing immunity with age. We assess that SVs increased the overall attack rates by prolonging the pandemic into the winter. Vaccinating school children would have been the optimal strategy for minimizing infection rates in all age-groups.
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