ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2016
Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Distribution of ticks in the Western Palearctic: an updated systematic review (2015-2021).Parasites & vectors · 2023Pooled it
- Running into the Lyme-light: a retrospective cross-sectional study of tick bites and Lyme disease prevalence, incidence, and prevention in hill runners, Scotland, UK.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Modeling Phenological and Physiological Responses to Climate Warming in a Hypothetical Migratory Songbird-Mosquito System.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Article
- Tick-borne encephalitis: from tick surveillance to the first confirmed human cases, the United Kingdom, 2015 to 2023.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- The impact of climate change on ecology of tick associated with tick-borne diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- A seasonal matrix population model for ixodid ticks with complex life histories and limited host availability.Ecology · 2025Article
- Alarming implications: severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome and its biological vectors in the context of climate change.Frontiers in microbiology · 2025Review
- Ticks' tricks: immunomodulatory effects of ixodid tick saliva at the cutaneous tick-host interface.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Review
- GIS-ODE: linking dynamic population models with GIS to predict pathogen vector abundance across a country under climate change scenarios.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Arthropod-Borne Viruses of Human and Animal Importance: Overwintering in Temperate Regions of Europe during an Era of Climate Change.Microorganisms · 2024Review
- Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010-2019.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- IxPopDyMod: an R package to write, run, and analyze tick population and infection dynamics models.Parasites & vectors · 2024Article
- Risk factors for tick attachment in companion animals in Great Britain: a spatiotemporal analysis covering 2014-2021.Parasites & vectors · 2024Article
- Hotspot movement of compound events on the Europe continent.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Using mechanistic models to highlight research priorities for tick-borne zoonotic diseases: Improving our understanding of the ecology and maintenance of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- The emergence and shift in seasonality of Lyme borreliosis in Northern Europe.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Risky business: human-related data is lacking from Lyme disease risk models.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Climate Changes Exacerbate the Spread ofInternational journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Review
- The evolving story of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato transmission in Europe.Parasitology research · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick-host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. The model is useful in improving understanding of the spatial determinants and system mechanisms of Lyme disease pathogen transmission and its sensitivity to temperature changes.
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