Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27019642›Full record

ArticlePopulation health metrics2016

Social patterns and differentials in the fertility transition in the context of HIV/AIDS: evidence from population surveillance, rural South Africa, 1993 - 2013.

Brian Houle, Athena Pantazis, Chodziwadziwa Kabudula, Stephen Tollman, Samuel J Clark

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In one paragraph

Article in Population health metrics, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Brian HouleSchool of Demography, The Australian National University, #9 Fellows Road, Acton, ACT Australia, Canberra, Australia ; Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO USA ; MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Athena PantazisDepartment of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA.
Chodziwadziwa KabudulaMRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa ; INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana ; Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Stephen TollmanMRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa ; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa ; INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana ; Centre for Global Health Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Samuel J ClarkInstitute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO USA ; MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa ; Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA ; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa ; INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana.

Funding

Partnership for Social Science AIDS Research in South African's Era of ART RollouR24AG032112 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO · PI MENKEN, JANE A · 2007 to 2011
$1.6M
NIA NIH HHS R24 AG032112
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundLiterature is limited on the effects of high prevalence HIV on fertility in the absence of treatment, and the effects of the introduction of sustained access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on fertility. We summarize fertility patterns in rural northeast South Africa over 21 years during dynamic social and epidemiological change.

methodsWe use data for females aged 15-49 from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (1993-2013). We use discrete time event history analysis to summarize patterns in the probability of any birth.

resultsOverall fertility declined in 2001-2003, increased in 2004-2011, and then declined in 2012-2013. South Africans showed a similar pattern. Mozambicans showed a different pattern, with strong declines prior to 2003 before stalling during 2004-2007, and then continued fertility decline afterwards. There was an inverse gradient between fertility levels and household socioeconomic status. The gradient did not vary by time or nationality.

conclusionsThe fertility transition in rural South Africa shows a pattern of decline until the height of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, with a resulting stall until further decline in the context of ART rollout. Fertility patterns are not homogenous among groups.

Indexed as

Discrete time event history analysisFertilityMozambican refugeeSocio-economic statusSouth Africa

Identifiers

PMID27019642
PMCPMC4807549

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.