ReviewMedical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making2017
Extrapolating Survival from Randomized Trials Using External Data: A Review of Methods.
Review in Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 52 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
52 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A Systematic Literature Review of Modelling Approaches to Evaluate the Cost Effectiveness of PET/CT for Therapy Response Monitoring in Oncology.PharmacoEconomics · 2025Pooled it
- A Systematic Review of Methods to Incorporate External Evidence into Trial-Based Survival Extrapolations for Health Technology Assessment.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2023Pooled it
- The impact of age on health utility values for older women with early-stage breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-regression.Health and quality of life outcomes · 2022Pooled it
- General-Purpose Methods for Simulating Survival Data for Expected Value of Sample Information Calculations.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2023Trial
- The Potential Long-Term Comparative Effectiveness of Larotrectinib and Entrectinib for Second-Line Treatment of TRK Fusion-Positive Metastatic Lung Cancer.Journal of managed care & specialty pharmacy · 2020Trial
- Methodology and results of real-world cost-effectiveness of carfilzomib in combination with lenalidomide and dexamethasone in relapsed multiple myeloma using registry data.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2020Trial
- The application of excess hazard models for plausible long-term extrapolation in cost-effectiveness: a re-evaluation of immunotherapy in advanced non-small cell lung cancer using the KEYNOTE-024 trial.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026Article
- Value of information analyses for advanced cell therapies: a systematic review.Health economics review · 2026Review
- Validation of Cure Assumptions when Analyzing ZUMA-7 Follow-up Data of Axicabtagene Ciloleucel and Standard of Care Therapy in Second-Line Relapsed/Refractory Large B-cell Lymphoma.Transplantation and cellular therapy · 2025Article
- Evaluating the Role and Policy Implications of Using External Evidence in Survival Extrapolations: A Case Study of Axicabtagene Ciloleucel Therapy for Second-Line DLBCL.PharmacoEconomics · 2025Article
- Impact of Limited Sample Size and Follow-up on Partitioned Survival and Multistate Modeling-Based Health Economic Models: A Simulation Study.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Data Resource Profile: The Lithuanian health data reuse pathway.International journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- A Bayesian Hierarchical Mixture Cure Modelling Framework to Utilize Multiple Survival Datasets for Long-Term Survivorship Estimates: A Case Study From Previously Untreated Metastatic Melanoma.Statistics in medicine · 2025Article
- A lifetime economic model of mortality and secondary care use for patients discharged from hospital following acute stroke.International journal of stroke : official journal of the International Stroke Society · 2025Article
- Impact of colorectal cancer screening programme on survival and employment in Taiwan: A nationwide analysis of real-world data.United European gastroenterology journal · 2024Article
- MPES-R: Multi-Parameter Evidence Synthesis in R for Survival Extrapolation-A Tutorial.PharmacoEconomics · 2024Article
- General Population Mortality Adjustment in Survival Extrapolation of Cancer Trials: Exploring Plausibility and Implications for Cost-Effectiveness Analyses in HER2-Positive Breast Cancer in Sweden.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024Article
- Dynamic changes and lifetime effect of functional disability profiles for stroke patients: real-world evidence from South Korea.Quality of life research : an international journal of quality of life aspects of treatment, care and rehabilitation · 2024Article
- Comparing Survival Extrapolation within All-Cause and Relative Survival Frameworks by Standard Parametric Models and Flexible Parametric Spline Models Using the Swedish Cancer Registry.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024Article
- SurvInt: a simple tool to obtain precise parametric survival extrapolations.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
This article describes methods used to estimate parameters governing long-term survival, or times to other events, for health economic models. Specifically, the focus is on methods that combine shorter-term individual-level survival data from randomized trials with longer-term external data, thus using the longer-term data to aid extrapolation of the short-term data. This requires assumptions about how trends in survival for each treatment arm will continue after the follow-up period of the trial. Furthermore, using external data requires assumptions about how survival differs between the populations represented by the trial and external data. Study reports from a national health technology assessment program in the United Kingdom were searched, and the findings were combined with "pearl-growing" searches of the academic literature. We categorized the methods that have been used according to the assumptions they made about how the hazards of death vary between the external and internal data and through time, and we discuss the appropriateness of the assumptions in different circumstances. Modeling choices, parameter estimation, and characterization of uncertainty are discussed, and some suggestions for future research priorities in this area are given.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.