ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2016
The Epidemiology of Herpes Zoster After Varicella Immunization Under Different Biological Hypotheses: Perspectives From Mathematical Modeling.
Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 33 citations in OpenAlex.
- Article
- How large could the public health impact of introducing recombinant zoster vaccination for people aged ≥50 years in five Latin American countries be?Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2023Article
- Meningitis caused by the varicella vaccine virus in 17 immunized children and adolescents from the United States, Europe, and Japan.Annals of the Child Neurology Society · 2023Review
- Exploring the Seasonal Drivers of Varicella Zoster Virus Transmission and Reactivation.American journal of epidemiology · 2021Article
- Clinical and economic impact of universal varicella vaccination in Norway: A modeling study.PloS one · 2021Article
- Cost-effectiveness of varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in Sweden: An economic evaluation using a dynamic transmission model.PloS one · 2021Article
- Risk of herpes zoster after exposure to varicella to explore the exogenous boosting hypothesis: self controlled case series study using UK electronic healthcare data.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2020Observational
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal varicella vaccination in Turkey using a dynamic transmission model.PloS one · 2019Article
- The impact of demographic changes, exogenous boosting and new vaccination policies on varicella and herpes zoster in Italy: a modelling and cost-effectiveness study.BMC medicine · 2018Article
- Evaluation of the effect of chickenpox vaccination on shingles epidemiology using agent-based modeling.PeerJ · 2018Article
- Age-Dependent Pre-Vaccination Immunity Affects the Immunogenicity of Varicella Zoster Vaccination in Middle-aged Adults.Frontiers in immunology · 2018Article
- Varicella vaccination - the global experience.Expert review of vaccines · 2017Review
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The impact of varicella vaccination on the epidemiology of herpes zoster (HZ) critically depends on the mechanism of immunological boosting, through which reexposures to varicella-zoster virus are thought to reduce the individual risk of HZ development. However, the qualitative and quantitative dynamics of this process are largely unknown. Consequently, mathematical models evaluating immunization strategies need to rely on theoretical assumptions. Available varicella-zoster virus models can be classified in 3 main families according to the postulated effect of exogenous boosting: 1) progressive accumulation of immunity following repeated reexposures; 2) partial protection that wanes over time; or 3) full but temporary immunity against HZ. In this work, we review and compare quantitative predictions from the 3 modeling approaches regarding the effect of varicella immunization on HZ. All models predict a qualitatively similar, but quantitatively heterogeneous, transient increase of HZ incidence. In particular, novel estimates from the progressive immunity model predict the largest increase in natural HZ and the largest incidence of HZ cases from reactivation of the vaccine strain, which in the long term will likely outnumber prevaccination numbers. Our results reinforce the idea that a better understanding of HZ pathogenesis is required before further mass varicella immunization programs are set out.
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