ArticleLancet (London, England)2016
Association between Zika virus and microcephaly in French Polynesia, 2013-15: a retrospective study.
Article in Lancet (London, England), 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 472 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
472 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Congenital Zika Syndrome and Disabilities of Feeding and Breastfeeding in Early Childhood: A Systematic Review.Viruses · 2023Pooled it
- Use of Cerebrospinal Fluid for the Diagnosis of Neuroinvasive Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya: A 19-year systematic review.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2021Pooled it
- Another piece of the Zika puzzle: assessing the associated factors to microcephaly in a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2020Pooled it
- Congenital Zika syndrome: A systematic review.PloS one · 2020Pooled it
- Health outcomes associated with Zika virus infection in humans: a systematic review of systematic reviews.BMJ open · 2019Pooled it
- A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Pooled it
- Pharmacological targeting of bunyavirus-induced synaptic impairment prevents neuronal hyperexcitability.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Article
- Ten Years of Congenital Zika Syndrome: From Outbreak to a Decade of Clinical, Therapeutic, and Preventive Advances in a Tropical Disease Context.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Review
- Bioinformatics-Guided structural characterization and immunogenicity assessment of multi-epitope vaccine candidates against Zika virus.Journal, genetic engineering & biotechnology · 2026Article
- Preparing for the Next Potential Pandemic-Chikungunya, Dengue, Zika and Other Viruses.Viruses · 2025Article
- CD38 is a key mediator of NADiScience · 2025Article
- An immunocompetent mouse model revealed that congenital Zika virus infection disrupted hippocampal function by activating autophagy.Emerging microbes & infections · 2025Article
- An updated review of Zika virus vaccine development.Clinical and experimental vaccine research · 2025Review
- A decade later, what have we learned from the Zika epidemic in children with intrauterine exposure?Lancet (London, England) · 2025Review
- Structural and functional characterization of the SLA' structure at the 3' terminus of the Zika virus negative-strand intermediate.RNA (New York, N.Y.) · 2025Article
- [OverView of infectious and non-infectious diseases in French Polynesia in 2025].Medecine tropicale et sante internationale · 2025Review
- Meeting Report on an Integrated Research Agenda for Mosquito-Borne Arboviruses.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Zika virus-specific and orthoflavivirus-cross-reactive IgGs correlate with Zika virus seroneutralization depending on prior dengue virus infection.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Zika virus-induced fetal demise is triggered by strain- and dose-specific RLR-driven activation of the interferon response in the decidua, placenta, and fetus inJournal of virology · 2025Article
412 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe emergence of Zika virus in the Americas has coincided with increased reports of babies born with microcephaly. On Feb 1, 2016, WHO declared the suspected link between Zika virus and microcephaly to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. This association, however, has not been precisely quantified.
methodsWe retrospectively analysed data from a Zika virus outbreak in French Polynesia, which was the largest documented outbreak before that in the Americas. We used serological and surveillance data to estimate the probability of infection with Zika virus for each week of the epidemic and searched medical records to identify all cases of microcephaly from September, 2013, to July, 2015. Simple models were used to assess periods of risk in pregnancy when Zika virus might increase the risk of microcephaly and estimate the associated risk.
findingsThe Zika virus outbreak began in October, 2013, and ended in April, 2014, and 66% (95% CI 62-70) of the general population were infected. Of the eight microcephaly cases identified during the 23-month study period, seven (88%) occurred in the 4-month period March 1 to July 10, 2014. The timing of these cases was best explained by a period of risk in the first trimester of pregnancy. In this model, the baseline prevalence of microcephaly was two cases (95% CI 0-8) per 10,000 neonates, and the risk of microcephaly associated with Zika virus infection was 95 cases (34-191) per 10,000 women infected in the first trimester. We could not rule out an increased risk of microcephaly from infection in other trimesters, but models that excluded the first trimester were not supported by the data.
interpretationOur findings provide a quantitative estimate of the risk of microcephaly in fetuses and neonates whose mothers are infected with Zika virus.
fundingLabex-IBEID, NIH-MIDAS, AXA Research fund, EU-PREDEMICS.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.