Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26981556›Full record

ArticleEBioMedicine2016

The Impact of Alzheimer's Disease on the Chinese Economy.

Marcus R Keogh-Brown, Henning Tarp Jensen, H Michael Arrighi, Richard D Smith

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in EBioMedicine, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Marcus R Keogh-BrownDepartment of Global Health and Development, Faculty of Public Health & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, United Kingdom.
Henning Tarp JensenGlobal Development Section, Department of Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
H Michael ArrighiJanssen Pharmaceutical Research & Development, LLC, 6500 Paseo Padre Parkway, Fremont, CA 94555, United States.
Richard D SmithFaculty of Public Health & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, United Kingdom.

Funding

Medical Research Council G0902036
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRecent increases in life expectancy may greatly expand future Alzheimer's Disease (AD) burdens. China's demographic profile, aging workforce and predicted increasing burden of AD-related care make its economy vulnerable to AD impacts. Previous economic estimates of AD predominantly focus on health system burdens and omit wider whole-economy effects, potentially underestimating the full economic benefit of effective treatment.

methodsAD-related prevalence, morbidity and mortality for 2011-2050 were simulated and were, together with associated caregiver time and costs, imposed on a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. Both economic and non-economic outcomes were analyzed.

findingsSimulated Chinese AD prevalence quadrupled during 2011-50 from 6-28 million. The cumulative discounted value of eliminating AD equates to China's 2012 GDP (US$8 trillion), and the annual predicted real value approaches US AD cost-of-illness (COI) estimates, exceeding US$1 trillion by 2050 (2011-prices). Lost labor contributes 62% of macroeconomic impacts. Only 10% derives from informal care, challenging previous COI-estimates of 56%.

interpretationHealth and macroeconomic models predict an unfolding 2011-2050 Chinese AD epidemic with serious macroeconomic consequences. Significant investment in research and development (medical and non-medical) is warranted and international researchers and national authorities should therefore target development of effective AD treatment and prevention strategies.

Indexed as

Health Care CostsModels, EconomicAlzheimer DiseaseChinaCost of IllnessGross Domestic ProductHumansAD, Alzheimer's DiseaseAlzheimer's DiseaseCDR, Clinical Dementia RatingCGE, Computable General EquilibriumChinaCOI, Cost Of IllnessDALYs, Disability Adjusted Life YearsGDP, Gross Domestic ProductGTAP, Global Trade Analysis ProjectIADL, Instrumental Activities of Daily LivingMacroeconomicModellingNPV, Net Present ValuePADL, Personal Activities of Daily Livingp.a., per annumRMB, RenminbiSAM, Social Accounting MatrixYLD, Years Lived with a DisabilityYLL, Years of Life Lost

Identifiers

PMID26981556
PMCPMC4776062

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.