ArticleEnvironmental health : a global access science source2016
Climate change projections of West Nile virus infections in Europe: implications for blood safety practices.
Article in Environmental health : a global access science source, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 85 citations in OpenAlex.
- Projected impact of climate change on human health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.BMJ global health · 2024Pooled it
- Does climate change transform military medicine and defense medical support?Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
- Evaluating the ability of a thermal biology-informed reproduction number to explain patterns of West Nile incidence in Europe.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Investigation of chikungunya arbovirus in cities of Bushehr province: An ELISA-based cross-sectional study.Virus research · 2026Article
- Review
- Review
- Paradigm Shift Toward "One Health" Monitoring ofOpen forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- West Nile Virus (WNV): One-Health and Eco-Health Global Risks.Veterinary sciences · 2025Review
- Environmental determinants of West Nile virus vector abundance at the wildlife-livestock interface.Medical and veterinary entomology · 2025Article
- West Nile virus unmasked: from gene variability to future challenges.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025Review
- Review of selected mosquito-borne diseases: arboviruses (dengue, chikungunya, Zika, West Nile, Japanese encephalitis, yellow fever) and parasitic diseases (malaria, lymphatic Filariasis).Frontiers in public health · 2025Review
- Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2024Article
- A systematic review of environmental factors related to WNV circulation in European and Mediterranean countries.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2023Review
- European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2023Article
- Assessing vector competence of mosquitoes from northeastern France to West Nile virus and Usutu virus.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Serological Survey of Mosquito-Borne Arboviruses in Wild Birds from Important Migratory Hotspots in Romania.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Climate Change and Cascading Risks from Infectious Disease.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2022Review
- Mitigating the risk of transfusion-transmitted infections with vector-borne agents solely by means of pathogen reduction.Transfusion · 2022Article
- Artificial intelligence to predict West Nile virus outbreaks with eco-climatic drivers.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2022Article
- West Nile and Usutu Virus Introduction via Migratory Birds: A Retrospective Analysis in Italy.Viruses · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted by mosquitoes in both urban as well as in rural environments and can be pathogenic in birds, horses and humans. Extrinsic factors such as temperature and land use are determinants of WNV outbreaks in Europe, along with intrinsic factors of the vector and virus.
methodsWith a multivariate model for WNV transmission we computed the probability of WNV infection in 2014, with July 2014 temperature anomalies. We applied the July temperature anomalies under the balanced A1B climate change scenario (mix of all energy sources, fossil and non-fossil) for 2025 and 2050 to model and project the risk of WNV infection in the future. Since asymptomatic infections are common in humans (which can result in the contamination of the donated blood) we estimated the predictive prevalence of WNV infections in the blood donor population.
resultsExternal validation of the probability model with 2014 cases indicated good prediction, based on an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.871 (SD = 0.032), on the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). The climate change projections for 2025 reveal a higher probability of WNV infection particularly at the edges of the current transmission areas (for example in Eastern Croatia, Northeastern and Northwestern Turkey) and an even further expansion in 2050. The prevalence of infection in (blood donor) populations in the outbreak-affected districts is expected to expand in the future.
conclusionsPredictive modelling of environmental and climatic drivers of WNV can be a valuable tool for public health practice. It can help delineate districts at risk for future transmission. These areas can be subjected to integrated disease and vector surveillance, outreach to the public and health care providers, implementation of personal protective measures, screening of blood donors, and vector abatement activities.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.