ArticleJournal of medical screening2016
Estimation of overdiagnosis using short-term trends and lead time estimates uncontaminated by overdiagnosed cases: Results from the Norwegian Breast Screening Programme.
Article in Journal of medical screening, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 29 citations in OpenAlex.
- Annual mammographic screening to reduce breast cancer mortality in women from age 40 years: long-term follow-up of the UK Age RCT.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2020Trial
- Influence of follow-up, screening age, interval, and compliance on overdiagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS): A modelling study.PloS one · 2026Article
- Understanding East-West differences in subsolid nodules: prevalence and overdiagnosis implications in lung cancer screening.Annals of medicine · 2025Article
- Quantifying Overdiagnosis for Multicancer Detection Tests: A Novel Method.Statistics in medicine · 2024Article
- DNA methylation analysis of peripheral blood mononuclear cells in diagnosing breast cancer from benign breast lesions.Journal of translational medicine · 2024Article
- Impact of annual trend volume of low-dose computed tomography for lung cancer screening on overdiagnosis, overmanagement, and gender disparities.Cancer imaging : the official publication of the International Cancer Imaging Society · 2024Article
- The utility of quantifying the orientation of breast masses in ultrasound imaging.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Overdiagnosis Due to Screening Mammography for Breast Cancer among Women Aged 40 Years and Over: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of personalized medicine · 2023Review
- Article
- Effect of population breast screening on breast cancer mortality up to 2005 in England and Wales: an individual-level cohort study.British journal of cancer · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundEstimating overdiagnosis in cancer screening is complicated. Using observational data, estimation of the expected incidence in the screening period and taking account of lead time are two major problems.
methodsUsing data from the Cancer Registry of Norway and the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Programme, we estimated incidence trends, using age-specific trends by year in the pre-screening period (1985-95). We also estimated sojourn time and sensitivity using interval cancers only. Thus, lead time estimates were uncontaminated by overdiagnosed cases. Finally, we derived estimates of overdiagnosis separately for all cancers, and for invasive cancers only, correcting for lead time, using two different methods.
resultsOur results indicate that overdiagnosis of all cancers, invasive and in situ, constituted 15-17% of all screen-detected cancers in 1996-2009. For invasive cancers only, the corresponding figures were -2 to 7% in the same period, suggesting that a substantial proportion of the overdiagnosis in the Norwegian Programme was due to ductal carcinoma in situ.
conclusionUsing short-term trends, instead of long, prior to screening was more effective in predicting incidence in the screening epoch. In addition, sojourn time estimation using symptomatic cancers only avoids over-correction for lead time and consequently underestimation of overdiagnosis. Longer follow-up will provide more precise estimates of overdiagnosis.
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