ArticleThe lancet. HIV2016
Effect of the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy targets for improved HIV care engagement: a modelling study.
Article in The lancet. HIV, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 45 citations in OpenAlex.
- Challenges in the Evaluation of Interventions to Improve Engagement Along the HIV Care Continuum in the United States: A Systematic Review.AIDS and behavior · 2017Pooled it
- Next-Day HIV Viral Load Test Result and Linkage to Care Among Persons Living With or at Risk of HIV: A Randomized Clinical Trial.JAMA network open · 2025Trial
- HIV infection impairs the host response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection by altering surfactant protein D function in the human lung alveolar mucosa.Mucosal immunology · 2024Article
- National plans and awareness campaigns as priorities for achieving global brain health.The Lancet. Global health · 2024Review
- A Growing Number of Men Who Have Sex With Men Aging With HIV (20212031): A Comparison of Two Microsimulation Models.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Article
- What Will It Take to End HIV in the United States? : A Comprehensive, Local-Level Modeling Study.Annals of internal medicine · 2021Article
- Predictors of Poor Adherence to CART and Treatment Failure at Second-Line Regimens Among Adults in Public Hospitals of Amhara Region, North-Western Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cohort Study.Patient preference and adherence · 2021Article
- Recruitment of Youth Living With HIV to Optimize Adherence and Virologic Suppression: Testing the Design of Technology-Based Community Health Nursing to Improve Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Clinical Trials.JMIR research protocols · 2020Article
- Modeling an integrated HIV prevention and care continuum to achieve the Ending the HIV Epidemic goals.AIDS (London, England) · 2020Article
- Digitized HIV/AIDS Treatment Adherence Interventions: A Review of Recent SMS/Texting Mobile Health Applications and Implications for Theory and Practice.Frontiers in communication · 2020Article
- A Multilingual, Culturally Competent Mobile Health Intervention to Improve Treatment Adherence Among Women Living With HIV: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.JMIR research protocols · 2020Article
- Barriers and Facilitators for Antiretroviral Treatment Adherence Among HIV-Positive African American and Latino Men Who Have Sex With Men.AIDS education and prevention : official publication of the International Society for AIDS Education · 2019Article
- Improvements in the HIV care continuum needed to meaningfully reduce HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Baltimore, US: a modelling study for HPTN 078.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2019Article
- Retention in HIV Care Among Participants in the Patient-Centered HIV Care Model: A Collaboration Between Community-Based Pharmacists and Primary Medical Providers.AIDS patient care and STDs · 2019Article
- Retention in HIV care during the 3 years following release from incarceration: A cohort study.PLoS medicine · 2018Article
- Pathways to Retention in HIV Care Among U.S. Veterans.AIDS research and human retroviruses · 2018Article
- Barriers and Facilitators for Clinical Care Engagement Among HIV-Positive African American and Latino Men Who Have Sex with Men.AIDS patient care and STDs · 2018Article
- Undiagnosed HIV infections among gay and bisexual men increasingly contribute to new infections in Australia.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2018Article
- Role of Country of Birth, Testing Site, and Neighborhood Characteristics on Nonlinkage to HIV Care Among Latinos.AIDS patient care and STDs · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe recently updated White House National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) includes specific progress indicators to improve the HIV care continuum in the USA, but the economic and epidemiological effect of achieving those indicators remains unclear. We aimed to project the impact of achieving NHAS goals on HIV incidence, prevalence, mortality, and costs among adults in the USA over 10 years.
methodsWe constructed a dynamic transmission model of HIV progression and care engagement based on literature sources and the most recent published US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. We specifically considered achievement of the 2020 targets set forth in NHAS progress indicator 1 (90% awareness of serostatus), indicator 4 (85% linkage within 1 month), and indicator 5 (90% of diagnosed individuals in care).
findingsAt current rates of engagement in the HIV care continuum, we project 524,000 (95% uncertainty range 442,000-712,000) new HIV infections and 375,000 deaths (364,000-578,000) between 2016 and 2025. Achievement of NHAS progress indicators 1 and 4 has modest epidemiological effect (new infections reduced by 2·0% and 3·9%, respectively). By contrast, increasing the proportion of diagnosed individuals in care (NHAS indicator 5) averts 52% (95% UR 47-56) of new infections. Achievement of all NHAS targets resulted in a 58% reduction (95% UR 52-61) in new infections and 128 000 lives saved (106,000-223,000) at an incremental health system cost of US$105 billion.
interpretationAchievement of NHAS progress indicators for screening, linkage, and particularly improving retention in care, can substantially reduce the burden of HIV in the USA, but continued and increased financial investment will be required.
fundingThe National Institutes of Health, the B Frank and Kathleen Polk Assistant Professorship in Epidemiology, Emory University CFAR, Johns Hopkins University CFAR, and CDC/NCHHSTP Epidemiological and Economic Modeling Agreement (5U38PS004646).
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.