ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2016
Leprosy New Case Detection Trends and the Future Effect of Preventive Interventions in Pará State, Brazil: A Modelling Study.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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21 citing papers in PubMed, 39 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Review of the Efficacy, Safety, and Feasibility of Rifamycin-Based Post-Exposure Chemoprophylaxis for Leprosy.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Review
- The Epidemiological Impact of Community-Based Skin Camps on Leprosy Control in East Hararghe Zone, Ethiopia: a Modelling Study.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2025Article
- Immune mediators as plasma biomarkers for identifying household contacts and classifying clinical forms and leprosy reactions.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Article
- Case detection delay in leprosy: Testing tool reliability and measurement consistency in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Tanzania.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Different profiles of chemokines, cytokines and cell growth factors in plasma samples from patients with leprosy, leprosy reactions and households contacts.Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz · 2024Article
- A modelling analysis of a new multi-stage pathway for classifying achievement of public health milestones for leprosy.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Article
- Leprosy: A Review of Epidemiology, Clinical Diagnosis, and Management.Journal of tropical medicine · 2022Review
- Development of a questionnaire to determine the case detection delay of leprosy: A mixed-methods cultural validation study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Towards the elimination of leprosy in Yunnan, China: A time-series analysis of surveillance data.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- The long-term impact of the Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program on leprosy incidence: A modelling study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of leprosy: A new challenge for leprosy prevention and control in Zhejiang, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- The State of Affairs in Post-Exposure Leprosy Prevention: A Descriptive Meta-Analysis on Immuno- and Chemo-Prophylaxis.Research and reports in tropical medicine · 2020Review
- Predicting the impact of household contact and mass chemoprophylaxis on future new leprosy cases in South Tarawa, Kiribati: A modelling study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2018Article
- Minimum requirements and optimal testing strategies of a diagnostic test for leprosy as a tool towards zero transmission: A modeling study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018Article
- Prevalence of autoantibodies against cellular antigens in patients with HIV and leprosy coinfection in the Amazon region.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2017Article
- Leprosy in Children.Current infectious disease reports · 2017Review
- Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches.Epidemics · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundLeprosy remains a public health problem in Brazil. Although the overall number of new cases is declining, there are still areas with a high disease burden, such as Pará State in the north of the country. We aim to predict future trends in new case detection rate (NCDR) and explore the potential impact of contact tracing and chemoprophylaxis on NCDR in Pará State.
methodsWe used SIMCOLEP, an existing individual-based model for the transmission and control of M. leprae, in a population structured by households. The model was quantified to simulate the population and observed NCDR of leprosy in Pará State for the period 1990 to 2014. The baseline scenario was the current control program, consisting of multidrug therapy, passive case detection, and active case detection from 2003 onwards. Future projections of the NCDR were made until 2050 given the continuation of the current control program (i.e. baseline). We further investigated the potential impact of two scenarios for future control of leprosy: 1) discontinuation of contact tracing; and 2) continuation of current control in combination with chemoprophylaxis. Both scenarios started in 2015 and were projected until 2050.
resultsThe modelled NCDR in Pará State after 2014 shows a continuous downward trend, reaching the official elimination target of 10 cases per 100,000 population by 2030. The cessation of systematic contact tracing would not result in a higher NCDR in the long run. Systematic contact tracing in combination with chemoprophylaxis for contacts would reduce the NCDR by 40% and bring attainment of the elimination target two years forward to 2028.
conclusionThe NCDR of leprosy continues to decrease in Pará State. Elimination of leprosy as a public health problem could possibly be achieved around 2030, if the current control program is maintained. Providing chemoprophylaxis would decrease the NCDR further and would bring elimination forward by two years.
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