Trial reportAmerican journal of respiratory and critical care medicine2016
Predictors of Mortality Poorly Predict Common Measures of Disease Progression in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.
Trial report in American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 106 citations in OpenAlex.
- Guidelines of the Polish Respiratory Society on the Diagnosis and Treatment of Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Diseases Other than Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.Advances in respiratory medicine · 2022Guideline
- Dual αAmerican journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2025Trial
- Clinical course of mild-to-moderate idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis during therapy with pirfenidone: Results of the non-interventional study AERplus.Pneumologie (Stuttgart, Germany) · 2024Trial
- Longitudinal serological assessment of type VI collagen turnover is related to progression in a real-world cohort of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2021Trial
- Modelling Forced Vital Capacity in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Optimising Trial Design.Advances in therapy · 2019Trial
- Performance Characteristics for Physiological Measures of Progressive Pulmonary Fibrosis.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2025Observational
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- Pilot study of home-based monitoring for early prediction of acute exacerbations in patients with fibrosing interstitial lung diseases.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Genetics and Genomics of Pulmonary Fibrosis: Charting the Molecular Landscape and Shaping Precision Medicine.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2024Review
- Oxygen saturation recovery after 6-minute walk test in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2024Article
- A multidimensional classifier to support lung transplant referral in patients with pulmonary fibrosis.The Journal of heart and lung transplantation : the official publication of the International Society for Heart Transplantation · 2024Article
- Predictive factors of mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis treated with antifibrotics: a novel prognostic scoring system.Sarcoidosis, vasculitis, and diffuse lung diseases : official journal of WASOG · 2024Article
- Article
- Article
- Compare three diagnostic criteria of progressive pulmonary fibrosis.Journal of thoracic disease · 2024Article
- Pulmonary Fibrosis Stakeholder Summit: A Joint NHLBI, Three Lakes Foundation, and Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Workshop Report.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2024Article
- Towards the adoption of quantitative computed tomography in the management of interstitial lung disease.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2024Review
- Interstitial lung disease: a review of classification, etiology, epidemiology, clinical diagnosis, pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatment.Frontiers in medicine · 2024Review
- A prospective cohort study of periostin as a serum biomarker in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis treated with nintedanib.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Association of the 6-minute walking test ratio and difference with pulmonary function in patients with interstitial lung disease.Saudi medical journal · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
rationaleMortality prediction is well studied in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but little is known about predictors of premortality disease progression. Identification of patients at risk for disease progression would be useful for clinical decision-making and designing clinical trials.
objectivesTo develop prediction models for disease progression in IPF.
methodsIn a large clinical trial cohort of patients with IPF (n = 1,113), we comprehensively screened multivariate models of candidate baseline and past-change predictors for disease progression defined by 48-week worsening of FVC, dyspnea (University of California, San Diego Shortness of Breath Questionnaire [UCSD SOBQ]), 6-minute-walk distance (6MWD), and occurrence of respiratory hospitalization, or death. Progression outcomes were modeled as appropriate, by slope change using linear regression models and time to binary outcomes using Cox proportional hazards models. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN
resultsThe overall cohort experienced considerable disease progression. Top-performing prediction models did not meaningfully predict most measures of disease progression. For example, prediction modeling explained less than or equal to 1% of the observed variation in 48-week slope change in FVC, UCSD SOBQ, and 6MWD. Models performed better for binary measures of time to disease progression but were still largely inaccurate (cross-validated C statistic ≤0.63 for ≥10% decline in FVC or death, ≤0.68 for ≥20-U increase in UCSD SOBQ or death, ≤0.70 for ≥100 m decline in 6MWD or death). Models for time to respiratory hospitalization or death (C statistic ≤0.77) or death alone (C statistic ≤0.81) demonstrated acceptable discriminative performance.
conclusionsClinical prediction models poorly predicted physiologic and functional disease progression in IPF. This is in contrast to respiratory hospitalization and mortality prediction.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.