Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26928026›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2016

Evaluating the impacts of screening and smoking cessation programmes on lung cancer in a high-burden region of the USA: a simulation modelling study.

Angela C Tramontano, Deirdre F Sheehan, Pamela M McMahon, Emily C Dowling, Theodore R Holford, Karen Ryczak, Samuel M Lesko, David T Levy, Chung Yin Kong

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Natural history models for lung Cancer: A scoping review.Lung cancer (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Lung cancer screening and smoking cessation efforts.Translational lung cancer research · 2021
    Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Challenges of quitting smoking and lung cancer screening.Annals of translational medicine · 2017
    Article
  14. Lung Cancer Screening.The Medical clinics of North America · 2017
    Review
  15. Tumor-node-metastasis staging and treatment patterns of 73,167 patients with lung cancer in Brazil.Jornal brasileiro de pneumologia : publicacao oficial da Sociedade Brasileira de Pneumologia e Tisilogia
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Angela C TramontanoInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Deirdre F SheehanInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Pamela M McMahonInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Emily C DowlingInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Theodore R HolfordDepartment of Biostatistics, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Karen RyczakNortheast Regional Cancer Institute, Scranton, Pennsylvania, USA.
Samuel M LeskoNortheast Regional Cancer Institute, Scranton, Pennsylvania, USA.
David T LevyLombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington DC, USA.
Chung Yin KongInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

Funding

Yale Pathology Tissue Services Shared ResourceP30CA016359 · NCI · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI DAVID L RIMM · 1985 to 2026
$85.0M
Comparative Modeling of Lung Cancer Prevention and Control PoliciesU01CA199284 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI DE KONING, HARRY J, HOLFORD, THEODORE R · 2015 to 2019
$8.4M
Comparative Modeling of Lung Cancer Control PoliciesU01CA152956 · NCI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI DE KONING, HARRY J, KONG, CHUNG YIN · 2010 to 2014
$7.4M
Applications of Multi-Criteria Optimization (AMCO) to Cancer Simulation ModelingK25CA133141 · NCI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI KONG, CHUNG YIN · 2009 to 2013
$844k
NCI NIH HHS K25 CA133141NCI NIH HHS K25CA133141NCI NIH HHS P30 CA016359NCI NIH HHS U01 CA152956NCI NIH HHS U01CA152956NCI NIH HHS U01 CA199284
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveWhile the US Preventive Services Task Force has issued recommendations for lung cancer screening, its effectiveness at reducing lung cancer burden may vary at local levels due to regional variations in smoking behaviour. Our objective was to use an existing model to determine the impacts of lung cancer screening alone or in addition to increased smoking cessation in a US region with a relatively high smoking prevalence and lung cancer incidence.

settingComputer-based simulation model.

participantsSimulated population of individuals 55 and older based on smoking prevalence and census data from Northeast Pennsylvania.

interventionsHypothetical lung cancer control from 2014 to 2050 through (1) screening with CT, (2) intensified smoking cessation or (3) a combination strategy. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were lung cancer mortality rates. Secondary outcomes included number of people eligible for screening and number of radiation-induced lung cancers.

resultsCombining lung cancer screening with increased smoking cessation would yield an estimated 8.1% reduction in cumulative lung cancer mortality by 2050. Our model estimated that the number of screening-eligible individuals would progressively decrease over time, indicating declining benefit of a screening-only programme. Lung cancer screening achieved a greater mortality reduction in earlier years, but was later surpassed by smoking cessation.

conclusionsCombining smoking cessation programmes with lung cancer screening would provide the most benefit to a population, especially considering the growing proportion of patients ineligible for screening based on current recommendations.

Indexed as

Computer SimulationFemaleHumansIncidenceLung NeoplasmsMaleMiddle AgedPennsylvaniaProgram EvaluationSensitivity and SpecificitySmokingSmoking Cessationlung cancerscreeningsimulation modelingsmoking cessation

Identifiers

PMID26928026
PMCPMC4780060

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.