ArticleJournal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)2016
An Empiric HIV Risk Scoring Tool to Predict HIV-1 Acquisition in African Women.
Article in Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 111 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
111 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 158 citations in OpenAlex.
- Risk prediction models for targeted testing of HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Review of Impact of Risk Reduction Sessions on Sexual Behaviors in HIV Prevention Trials: Insights from Africa.Archives of sexual behavior · 2025Pooled it
- Risk-Based Screening Tools to Optimise HIV Testing Services: a Systematic Review.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2022Pooled it
- Risk scores for predicting HIV incidence among adult heterosexual populations in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2022Pooled it
- Substance use patterns of HVTN phase I clinical trial participants: Enrollment, risk reduction counseling and retention.Vaccine · 2018Pooled it
- Trial
- The Association Between Use of Adherence Support Interventions and Adherence to HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis Among Young South African and Zimbabwean Women in HPTN 082.AIDS and behavior · 2025Trial
- Data-informed Stepped Care (DiSC) to improve adolescent and young adult HIV care outcomes in Kenya: a cluster randomized trial.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Trial
- Evaluation of long-acting cabotegravir safety and pharmacokinetics in pregnant women in eastern and southern Africa: a secondary analysis of HPTN 084.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Trial
- Trial
- A decision support tool has similar high PrEP uptake and increases early PrEP persistence in adolescent girls and young women in South Africa: results from a randomized controlled trial.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Trial
- Use of Varied Screening Risk Criteria and HIV Incidence in Phase 1 and 2 HIV Vaccine Trials in South Africa.AIDS and behavior · 2023Trial
- Population-Level Correlation Between Incidence of Curable Sexually Transmitted Infections and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1 Among African Women Participating in HIV-1 Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Trials.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2022Trial
- Genital microbiota of women using a 90 day tenofovir or tenofovir and levonorgestrel intravaginal ring in a placebo controlled randomized safety trial in Kenya.Scientific reports · 2022Trial
- Cabotegravir for the prevention of HIV-1 in women: results from HPTN 084, a phase 3, randomised clinical trial.Lancet (London, England) · 2022Trial
- Trial
- Assessing longitudinal patterns of depressive symptoms and the influence of symptom trajectories on HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis adherence among adolescent girls in the HPTN 082 randomized controlled trial.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Trial
- Effect of SMS reminders on PrEP adherence in young Kenyan women (MPYA study): a randomised controlled trial.The lancet. HIV · 2021Trial
- Integrating oral PrEP delivery among African women in a large HIV endpoint-driven clinical trial.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2020Trial
- Early Adopters of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Preexposure Prophylaxis in a Population-based Combination Prevention Study in Rural Kenya and Uganda.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2018Trial
51 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 6 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo develop and validate an HIV risk assessment tool to predict HIV acquisition among African women.
designData were analyzed from 3 randomized trials of biomedical HIV prevention interventions among African women (VOICE, HPTN 035, and FEM-PrEP).
methodsWe implemented standard methods for the development of clinical prediction rules to generate a risk-scoring tool to predict HIV acquisition over the course of 1 year. Performance of the score was assessed through internal and external validations.
resultsThe final risk score resulting from multivariable modeling included age, married/living with a partner, partner provides financial or material support, partner has other partners, alcohol use, detection of a curable sexually transmitted infection, and herpes simplex virus 2 serostatus. Point values for each factor ranged from 0 to 2, with a maximum possible total score of 11. Scores ≥5 were associated with HIV incidence >5 per 100 person-years and identified 91% of incident HIV infections from among only 64% of women. The area under the curve (AUC) for predictive ability of the score was 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 0.74), indicating good predictive ability. Risk score performance was generally similar with internal cross-validation (AUC = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.73) and external validation in HPTN 035 (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.65 to 0.75) and FEM-PrEP (AUC = 0.58; 95% CI: 0.51 to 0.65).
conclusionsA discrete set of characteristics that can be easily assessed in clinical and research settings was predictive of HIV acquisition over 1 year. The use of a validated risk score could improve efficiency of recruitment into HIV prevention research and inform scale-up of HIV prevention strategies in women at highest risk.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.