ArticleeLife2016
Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.
Article in eLife, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
40 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- A systematic review of published literature on mosquito control action thresholds across the world.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Effectiveness of early warning systems in the detection of infectious diseases outbreaks: a systematic review.BMC public health · 2022Pooled it
- Climate change and infectious diseases.Nature medicine · 2026Review
- Horizons of the Future: Preparedness and Response.Current topics in microbiology and immunology · 2026Review
- Performance evaluation of an operational dengue forecasting system (D-MOSS) in Vietnam.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- A global assessment of urban extreme weather early warning systems and public health engagement.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal dataset of dengue influencing factors in Brazil based on geospatial big data cloud computing.Scientific data · 2025Article
- Impact of a national tsetse control programme to eliminate Gambian sleeping sickness in Uganda: a spatiotemporal modelling study.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Climate change, thermal anomalies, and the recent progression of dengue in Brazil.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- A Low-Cost Early Warning Method for Infectious Diseases with Asymptomatic Carriers.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Decision-support tools to build climate resilience against emerging infectious diseases in Europe and beyond.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2023Review
- An Integrative Explainable Artificial Intelligence Approach to Analyze Fine-Scale Land-Cover and Land-Use Factors Associated with Spatial Distributions of Place of Residence of Reported Dengue Cases.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Article
- Global climate change and human health: Pathways and possible solutions.Eco-Environment & Health · 2022Review
- Temporal Correlation Between Urban Microclimate, Vector Mosquito Abundance, and Dengue Cases.Journal of medical entomology · 2022Article
- Collaboration between meteorology and public health: Predicting the dengue epidemic in Guangzhou, China, by meteorological parameters.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2022Article
- Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.PLoS medicine · 2021Article
- Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles.PLoS medicine · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.