ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2016
Mechanistic Models of Infectious Disease and Their Impact on Public Health.
Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review of dengue outbreak prediction models: Current scenario and future directions.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Pooled it
- Dynamic Models of Infectious Disease Transmission in Prisons and the General Population.Epidemiologic reviews · 2018Pooled it
- Protein Decoys, Alcohol, and Energy Intake: Testing a Mechanistic-Ecological Model.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2026Review
- Nonlinear effects of noise on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Toward AI foundation models for epidemics: Promise, challenges, and paths forward.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Higher-order Interaction Matters: Modeling Epidemics via Dynamic Hypergraph Neural Networks.Pacific Symposium on Biocomputing. Pacific Symposium on Biocomputing · 2026Article
- Dynamics of an epidemic controlled by isolation and quarantine: A probability-based deterministic model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Assessing Public Health Capacity for Infectious Disease Modeling: A Qualitative Study of State and Local Agencies.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Synthesis estimators for transportability with positivity violations by a continuous covariate.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2025Article
- Modeling zoonotic and vector-borne viruses.Current opinion in virology · 2024Review
- An inaugural forum on epidemiological modeling for public health stakeholders in Arizona.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Making waves: Integrating wastewater surveillance with dynamic modeling to track and predict viral outbreaks.Water research · 2023Article
- Coupling Plant Growth Models and Pest and Disease Models: An Interaction Structure Proposal, MIMIC.Plant phenomics (Washington, D.C.) · 2023Article
- Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Current Trends and Perspectives on Predictive Models for Mildew Diseases in Vineyards.Microorganisms · 2022Review
- A box, a trough and marbles: How the Reed-Frost epidemic theory shaped epidemiological reasoning in the 20th century.History and philosophy of the life sciences · 2021Article
- Are COVID-19 models blind to the social determinants of health? A systematic review protocol.BMJ open · 2021Article
- The multiplicity of analysis strategies jeopardizes replicability: lessons learned across disciplines.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Effectiveness of Intervention Strategies on MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in South Korea, 2015: Simulations on the Network Based on the Real-World Contact Data.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
From the 1930s through the 1940s, Lowell Reed and Wade Hampton Frost used mathematical models and mechanical epidemic simulators as research tools and to teach epidemic theory to students at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (then the School of Hygiene and Public Health). Since that time, modeling has become an integral part of epidemiology and public health. Models have been used for explanatory and inferential purposes, as well as in planning and implementing public health responses. In this article, we review a selection of developments in the history of modeling of infectious disease dynamics over the past 100 years. We also identify trends in model development and use and speculate as to the future use of models in infectious disease dynamics.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.