Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26892940›Full record

ArticleThe American journal of psychiatry2016

Toward the Definition of a Bipolar Prodrome: Dimensional Predictors of Bipolar Spectrum Disorders in At-Risk Youths.

Danella M Hafeman, John Merranko, David Axelson, Benjamin I Goldstein, Tina Goldstein, Kelly Monk, Mary Beth Hickey, Dara Sakolsky, Rasim Diler, Satish Iyengar and 3 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The American journal of psychiatry, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 91 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
91citing papers in PubMed
22.0field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

91 citing papers in PubMed, 211 citations in OpenAlex.

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  8. A Pharmacologic Algorithm for Youth Who Are at High Risk for Bipolar Disorder.Journal of child and adolescent psychopharmacology · 2017
    Trial
  9. Review
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  11. Brainwide Structural Markers of Familial and Clinical Risk for Bipolar Disorder in Youth.Biological psychiatry. Cognitive neuroscience and neuroimaging · 2026
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  17. The relationship between neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) and NLRP3 inflammasome.Inflammation research : official journal of the European Histamine Research Society ... [et al.] · 2025
    Review
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  20. Article

31 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Danella M HafemanFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
John MerrankoFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
David AxelsonFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
Benjamin I GoldsteinFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
Tina GoldsteinFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
Kelly MonkFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
Mary Beth HickeyFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
Dara SakolskyFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
Rasim DilerFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
Satish IyengarFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
David BrentFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
David KupferFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
Boris BirmaherFrom the Department of Psychiatry and the Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh; the Department of Psychiatry, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Ohio State University, Columbus; and the Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto.
Nationwide Children's Hospital · US

Funding

Children of Bipolar Parents: A High Risk Follow Up Study (also known as Bipolar Offspring Study - BIOS)R01MH060952 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI BIRMAHER, BORIS, PHILLIPS, MARY LOUISE · 2001 to 2020
$20.4M
CLINICAL RESEARCH TRAINING IN CHILD PSYCHIATRYT32MH018951 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI TINA R GOLDSTEIN · 1990 to 2026
$9.7M
NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH060952NIMH NIH HHS T32 MH018951
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveThe authors sought to assess dimensional symptomatic predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders in youths at familial risk of bipolar disorder ("at-risk" youths).

methodOffspring 6-18 years old of parents with bipolar I or II disorder (N=359) and community comparison offspring (N=220) were recruited. At baseline, 8.4% of the offspring of bipolar parents had a bipolar spectrum disorder. Over 8 years, 14.7% of offspring for whom follow-up data were available (44/299) developed a new-onset bipolar spectrum disorder (15 with bipolar I or II disorder). Measures collected at baseline and follow-up were reduced using factor analyses, and factors (both at baseline and at the visit prior to conversion or last contact) were assessed as predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders.

resultsRelative to comparison offspring, at-risk and bipolar offspring had higher baseline levels of anxiety/depression, inattention/disinhibition, externalizing, subsyndromal manic, and affective lability symptoms. The strongest predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders were baseline anxiety/depression, baseline and proximal affective lability, and proximal subsyndromal manic symptoms (p<0.05). While affective lability and anxiety/depression were elevated throughout follow-up in those who later developed a bipolar spectrum disorder, manic symptoms increased up to the point of conversion. A path analysis supported the hypothesis that affective lability at baseline predicts a new-onset bipolar spectrum disorder in part through increased manic symptoms at the visit prior to conversion; earlier parental age at mood disorder onset was also significantly associated with an increased risk of conversion. While youths without anxiety/depression, affective lability, and mania (and with a parent with older age at mood disorder onset) had a 2% predicted chance of conversion to a bipolar spectrum disorder, those with all risk factors had a 49% predicted chance of conversion.

conclusionsDimensional measures of anxiety/depression, affective lability, and mania are important predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders in at-risk youths. These symptoms emerged from among numerous other candidates, underscoring the potential clinical and research utility of these findings.

Indexed as

Prodromal SymptomsAdolescentBipolar DisorderChildFactor Analysis, StatisticalFemaleFollow-Up StudiesGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseHumansMaleRisk Assessment

Identifiers

PMID26892940
PMCPMC4930393
OpenAlexW2287654992

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.