ArticleFrontiers in veterinary science2016
Simulation of Spread of African Swine Fever, Including the Effects of Residues from Dead Animals.
Article in Frontiers in veterinary science, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modelling African Swine Fever Transmission and Epidemiology: A Scoping Review of Mechanistic, Statistical, and Machine Learning Approaches.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Review
- Disease outbreak data to inform decision-making: the role of disease spread models in the Lao P.D.R. African Swine Fever epidemic, 2019.Tropical animal health and production · 2025Article
- Assessments of epidemic spread in aquaculture: comparing different scenarios of infectious bacteria incursion through spatiotemporal hybrid modeling.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2023Article
- Estimating transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus from experimental studies.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Article
- Assessing the geographic range of classical swine fever vaccinations by spatiotemporal modelling in Japan.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Article
- Towards a Framework for High-Performance Simulation of Livestock Disease Outbreak: A Case Study of Spread of African Swine Fever in Vietnam.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2021Article
- Modelling the transmission and persistence of African swine fever in wild boar in contrasting European scenarios.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- BOARD INVITED REVIEW: Prospects for improving management of animal disease introductions using disease-dynamic models.Journal of animal science · 2019Review
- Threat to the French Swine Industry of African Swine Fever: Surveillance, Spread, and Control Perspectives.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2019Article
- Generation of swine movement network and analysis of efficient mitigation strategies for African swine fever virus.PloS one · 2019Article
- Inferring within-herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2018Article
- Modeling the Effects of Duration and Size of the Control Zones on the Consequences of a Hypothetical African Swine Fever Epidemic in Denmark.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2018Article
- Behaviour of free ranging wild boar towards their dead fellows: potential implications for the transmission of African swine fever.Royal Society open science · 2017Article
- African swine fever outbreak on a medium-sized farm in Uganda: biosecurity breaches and within-farm virus contamination.Tropical animal health and production · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
To study the spread of African swine fever (ASF) within a pig unit and the impact of unit size on ASF spread, a simulation model was created. In the model, an animal can be in one of the following stages: susceptible, latent, subclinical, clinical, or recovered. Animals can be infectious during the subclinical stage and are fully infectious during the clinical stage. ASF virus (ASFV) infection through residues of dead animals in the slurries was also modeled in an exponentially fading-out pattern. Low and high transmission rates for ASFV were tested in the model. Robustness analysis was carried out in order to study the impact of uncertain parameters on model predictions. The results showed that the disease may fade out within the pig unit without a major outbreak. Furthermore, they showed that spread of ASFV is dependent on the infectiousness of subclinical animals and the residues of dead animals, the transmission rate of the virus, and importantly the unit size. Moreover, increasing the duration of the latent or the subclinical stages resulted in longer time to disease fade out. The proposed model is a simple and robust tool simulating the spread of ASFV within a pig house taking into account dynamics of ASFV spread and the unit size. The tool can be implemented in simulation models of ASFV spread between herds.
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