ArticleScientific reports2016
Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.
Article in Scientific reports, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 50 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
50 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control.Parasites & vectors · 2023Pooled it
- The Impact of Meteorological Factors on Communicable Disease Incidence and Its Projection: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- Climate-Driven Distribution and Ecological Niche Modeling of ThreeTropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Suitable ecological niches of invasive malaria vector under present and projected climatic conditions in South of Iran.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Impact of environmental factors on the bionomics ofOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Review
- Fine-Scale Risk Mapping for Dengue Vector Using Spatial Downscaling in Intra-Urban Areas of Guangzhou, China.Insects · 2025Article
- Stratified sustainable vector control strategies and measures for malaria control and elimination in China: a 70 year journey.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2025Article
- Characterization of environmental drivers influencing the abundance of Anopheles maculipennis complex in Northern Italy.Parasites & vectors · 2024Article
- SEIRS model for malaria transmission dynamics incorporating seasonality and awareness campaign.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- The contemporary nexus of medicines security and bioprospecting: a future perspective for prioritizing the patient.Natural products and bioprospecting · 2024Review
- Species distribution modeling for disease ecology: A multi-scale case study for schistosomiasis host snails in Brazil.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Seasonal prediction of the distribution of three major malaria vectors in China: Based on an ecological niche model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Main Malaria Vectors in an Endemic Area, Southeastern Iran.Iranian journal of public health · 2023Article
- Prediction of the Risk Distributions for Anopheles sinensis, a Vector for Malaria in Shanghai, China.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2023Article
- Global Risk Assessment of the Occurrence of Bovine Lumpy Skin Disease: Based on an Ecological Niche Model.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2023Article
- Vector control in China, from malaria endemic to elimination and challenges ahead.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Review
- Receptivity to malaria: meaning and measurement.Malaria journal · 2022Review
- Prediction of malaria using deep learning models: A case study on city clusters in the state of Amazonas, Brazil, from 2003 to 2018.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2022Article
- Ten GIS-Based Solutions for Managing and Controlling COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak.SN computer science · 2022Review
- Identification of bio-climatic determinants and potential risk areas for Kyasanur forest disease in Southern India using MaxEnt modelling approach.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
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13 authors.
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Abstract
Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.
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