ArticleEuropean journal of cancer prevention : the official journal of the European Cancer Prevention Organisation (ECP)2017
Development of a prediction model and estimation of cumulative risk for upper aerodigestive tract cancer on the basis of the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 genotype and alcohol consumption in a Japanese population.
Article in European journal of cancer prevention : the official journal of the European Cancer Prevention Organisation (ECP), 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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18 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.
- Genetic architecture of alcohol consumption identified by a genotype-stratified GWAS and impact on esophageal cancer risk in Japanese people.Science advances · 2024Pooled it
- Risk Prediction Model for Esophageal Cancer Among General Population: A Systematic Review.Frontiers in public health · 2021Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Genetic susceptibility, risk prediction, and druggable targets for oropharyngeal cancer: a UK Biobank study.European archives of oto-rhino-laryngology : official journal of the European Federation of Oto-Rhino-Laryngological Societies (EUFOS) : affiliated with the German Society for Oto-Rhino-Laryngology - Head and Neck Surgery · 2026Article
- Genetic regulation across germline and somatic variation on the Y chromosome contributes to type 2 diabetes.Nature medicine · 2026Article
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- High mean corpuscular volume as a predictor of esophageal cancer: A cohort study based on the Japanese Shizuoka Kokuho Database.PloS one · 2025Article
- Personalized medicine with germline pathogenic variants: Importance of population- and region-wide evidence.Cancer science · 2023Review
- A risk prediction model for head and neck cancers incorporating lifestyle factors, HPV serology and genetic markers.International journal of cancer · 2023Article
- Risk prediction models for head and neck cancer: A rapid review.Laryngoscope investigative otolaryngology · 2022Review
- Risk Prediction Models for Patients with Head and Neck Cancer among the Taiwanese Population.Cancers · 2022Article
- Expansion of Cancer Risk Profile for BRCA1 and BRCA2 Pathogenic Variants.JAMA oncology · 2022Article
- The impact ofAging · 2022Article
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- Risk Prediction Models for Head and Neck Cancer in the US Population From the INHANCE Consortium.American journal of epidemiology · 2020Article
- Association between ALDH2 and ADH1B polymorphisms, alcohol drinking and gastric cancer: a replication and mediation analysis.Gastric cancer : official journal of the International Gastric Cancer Association and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association · 2018Article
- ALDH2 polymorphism and alcohol-related cancers in Asians: a public health perspective.Journal of biomedical science · 2017Review
- Roles of defective ALDH2 polymorphism on liver protection and cancer development.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2016Review
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Alcohol consumption and the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) polymorphism are associated with the risk of upper aerodigestive tract cancer, and a significant gene-environment interaction between the two has been confirmed in a Japanese population. To aid the development of a personalized prevention strategy, we developed a risk-prediction model and estimated absolute risks stratified by a combination of the ALDH2 genotype and alcohol consumption. We carried out two age-matched and sex-matched case-control studies: one (630 cases and 1260 controls) for model derivation and the second (654 cases and 654 controls) for external validation. On the basis of data from the derivation study, a prediction model was developed by fitting a conditional logistic regression model using the following predictors: age, sex, smoking, drinking, and the ALDH2 genotype. The risk model, including a combination of the ALDH2 genotype and alcohol consumption, provided high discriminatory accuracy and good calibration in both the derivation and the validation studies: C statistics were 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.84) and 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.81-0.85), respectively, and the calibration plots of both studies remained close to the ideal calibration line. Cumulative risks were obtained by combining odds ratios estimated from the risk model with the age-specific incidence rate and population size. For heavy drinkers with a heterozygous genotype, the cumulative risk at age 80 was above 20%. In contrast, risk in the other groups was less than 5%. In conclusion, modification of alcohol consumption according to the ALDH2 genotype will have a major impact on upper aerodigestive tract cancer prevention. These findings represent a simple and practical model for personalized cancer prevention.
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