ArticleBMC gastroenterology2016
Mortality Risk for Acute Cholangitis (MAC): a risk prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with acute cholangitis.
Article in BMC gastroenterology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 57 citations in OpenAlex.
- Slippery dopamine-fluoropolymer hybrid surface for improving biliary stent longevity.Bioactive materials · 2026Article
- Hypoalbuminemia as a predictor of mortality in patients with acute cholangitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.World journal of gastrointestinal pathophysiology · 2026Article
- Clinical pattern and outcomes of acute cholangitis among patients at a tertiary health care facility in Kenya: a cross-sectional study.The Pan African medical journal · 2026Article
- Navigating Complications: A Case of Hemostatic Clip-Induced Biliary Obstruction Leading to Acute Cholangitis.ACG case reports journal · 2025Article
- Statin Use Is Associated With Protection Against Acute Cholangitis in Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study.Clinical and translational gastroenterology · 2025Article
- Machine-learning-derived online prediction models of outcomes for patients with cholelithiasis-induced acute cholangitis: development and validation in two retrospective cohorts.EClinicalMedicine · 2024Article
- Morbidity and mortality in patients with stage IV pancreatic adenocarcinoma and acute cholangitis: Outcomes and risk prognostication.Pancreatology : official journal of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) ... [et al.] · 2024Observational
- ERCP endoscopic minimally invasive treatment of acute suppurative obstructive cholangitis: A study of 47 patients.Experimental and therapeutic medicine · 2024Article
- Applying Machine Learning Approach to Explore Childhood Circumstances and Self-Rated Health in Old Age - China and the US, 2020-2021.China CDC weekly · 2024Article
- Proportion of Neutrophils in White Blood Cells as a Useful Marker for Predicting Bacteremic Acute Cholangitis.Internal medicine (Tokyo, Japan) · 2023Article
- Addition of anaerobic coverage for treatment of biliary tract infections: a propensity score-matched cohort study.JAC-antimicrobial resistance · 2023Article
- A New Nomogram for Predicting 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Rate of Acute Cholangitis Patients in the Intensive Care Unit.Emergency medicine international · 2023Article
- Risk factors for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography cholangitis in patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis-an observational study.Annals of medicine · 2022Observational
- Changing Patterns of Causative Pathogens over Time and Efficacy of Empirical Antibiotic Therapies in Acute Cholangitis with Bacteremia.Gut and liver · 2022Article
- Implications of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Patients with Acute Cholangitis: A Systematic Review of Current Literature.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Review
- ERCP within 6 or 12 h for acute cholangitis: a propensity score-matched analysis.Surgical endoscopy · 2022Article
- Diagnostic Inflammation Biomarkers for Prediction of 30-Day Mortality Rate in Acute Cholangitis.International journal of surgery protocols · 2022Article
- Specificities of acute cholangitis in patients with cancer: a retrospective comparative study of 130 episodes.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2022Article
- Validation of Tokyo Guidelines 2007 and Tokyo Guidelines 2013/2018 Criteria for Acute Cholangitis and Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality.Visceral medicine · 2021Article
- WSES/GAIS/SIS-E/WSIS/AAST global clinical pathways for patients with intra-abdominal infections.World journal of emergency surgery : WJES · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAcute cholangitis is a life-threatening bacterial infection of the biliary tract. Main focus of this study was to create a useful risk prediction model that helps physicians to assign patients with acute cholangitis into different management groups.
methods981 cholangitis episodes from 810 patients were analysed retrospectively at a German tertiary center.
resultsOut of eleven investigated statistical models fit to 22 predictors, the Random Forest model achieved the best (cross-)validated performance to predict mortality. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve revealed a mean area under the curve (AUC) of 91.5 %. Dependent on the calculated mortality risk, we propose to stratify patients with acute cholangitis into a high and low risk group. The mean sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of the corresponding optimal cutpoint were 82.9 %, 85.1 %, 19.0 % and 99.3 %, respectively. All of these results emerge from nested (cross-)validation and are supposed to reflect the model's performance expected for external data. An implementation of our risk prediction model including the specific treatment recommendations adopted from the Tokyo guidelines is available on http://www2.imse.med.tum.de:3838/ .
conclusionOur risk prediction model for mortality appears promising to stratify patients with acute cholangitis into different management groups. Additional validation of its performance should be provided by further prospective trails.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.