ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2016
Respiratory virus transmission dynamics determine timing of asthma exacerbation peaks: Evidence from a population-level model.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 54 citations in OpenAlex.
- Rental housing may contribute to racial and ethnic disparities in upper respiratory infections.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Neighborhood disadvantage and the back-to-school epidemic of viral-associated asthma exacerbations.The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology · 2025Article
- Pollen and viruses contribute to spatio-temporal variation in asthma-related emergency department visits.Environmental research · 2024Article
- Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years.Nature communications · 2024Article
- The Dual Role of the Airway Epithelium in Asthma: Active Barrier and Regulator of Inflammation.Cells · 2023Review
- Impact of COVID-19 on pediatric asthma-related healthcare utilization in New York City: a community-based study.BMC pediatrics · 2023Article
- Spring is associated with increased total and allergenic fungal concentrations in house dust from a pediatric asthma cohort in New York City.Building and environment · 2022Article
- Real-time pandemic surveillance using hospital admissions and mobility data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- The Impact of Cocirculating Pathogens on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)/Coronavirus Disease 2019 Surveillance: How Concurrent Epidemics May Introduce Bias and Decrease the Observed SARS-CoV-2 Percentage Positivity.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Seasonal and monthly variation in peak expiratory flow rate in children with asthma.Asia Pacific allergy · 2021Article
- Article
- Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.PloS one · 2021Article
- Use of Weather Variables in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Studies.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2020Review
- Special Disaster Issue.Journal of emergency nursing · 2020Article
- Socioeconomic bias in influenza surveillance.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- [Levels of airway inflammatory mediators in peripheral blood in infants and young children with wheezing].Zhongguo dang dai er ke za zhi = Chinese journal of contemporary pediatrics · 2019Article
- Invasion reproductive numbers for discrete-time models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2019Article
- Is there a gender-specific association between asthma and carotid intima media thickness in Swiss adolescents?European journal of pediatrics · 2018Article
- Lethal Respiratory Disease Associated with Human Rhinovirus C in Wild Chimpanzees, Uganda, 2013.Emerging infectious diseases · 2018Article
- [Climate-sensitive diseases in Brazil and the world: systematic reviewEnfermedades sensibles al clima en Brasil y el mundo: revisión sistemática].Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health · 2018Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Asthma exacerbations exhibit a consistent annual pattern, closely mirroring the school calendar. Although respiratory viruses--the "common cold" viruses--are implicated as a principal cause, there is little evidence to link viral prevalence to seasonal differences in risk. We jointly fit a common cold transmission model and a model of biological and environmental exacerbation triggers to estimate effects on hospitalization risk. Asthma hospitalization rate, influenza prevalence, and air quality measures are available, but common cold circulation is not; therefore, we generate estimates of viral prevalence using a transmission model. Our deterministic multivirus transmission model includes transmission rates that vary when school is closed. We jointly fit the two models to 7 y of daily asthma hospitalizations in adults and children (66,000 events) in eight metropolitan areas. For children, we find that daily viral prevalence is the strongest predictor of asthma hospitalizations, with transmission reduced by 45% (95% credible interval =41-49%) during school closures. We detect a transient period of nonspecific immunity between infections lasting 19 (17-21) d. For adults, hospitalizations are more variable, with influenza driving wintertime peaks. Neither particulate matter nor ozone was an important predictor, perhaps because of the large geographic area of the populations. The school calendar clearly and predictably drives seasonal variation in common cold prevalence, which results in the "back-to-school" asthma exacerbation pattern seen in children and indirectly contributes to exacerbation risk in adults. This study provides a framework for anticipating the seasonal dynamics of common colds and the associated risks for asthmatics.
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