ArticlePLoS computational biology2016
Persistent Chaos of Measles Epidemics in the Prevaccination United States Caused by a Small Change in Seasonal Transmission Patterns.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Using COVID-19 pandemic perturbation to model RSV-hMPV interactions and potential implications under RSV interventions.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Deep neural networks for endemic measles dynamics: Comparative analysis and integration with mechanistic models.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Demographical, clinical, and complication differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated hospitalized children with measles in mogadishu somalia: a hospital-based retrospective cohort study.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2023Article
- Application of a forecasting model to mitigate the consequences of unexpected RSV surge: Experience from the post-COVID-19 2021/22 winter season in a major metropolitan centre, Lyon, France.Journal of global health · 2023Article
- Disease Progression, Clinical Features, and Risk Factors for Pneumonia in Unvaccinated Children and Adolescents with Measles: A Re-Emerging Disease in Romania.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Comparing and linking machine learning and semi-mechanistic models for the predictability of endemic measles dynamics.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- COVID-19 in Africa: Underreporting, demographic effect, chaotic dynamics, and mitigation strategy impact.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Tensor decomposition for infectious disease incidence data.Methods in ecology and evolution · 2020Article
- Cyclic epidemics and extreme outbreaks induced by hydro-climatic variability and memory.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Inference on high-dimensional implicit dynamic models using a guided intermediate resampling filter.Statistics and computing · 2020Article
- Structure, space and size: competing drivers of variation in urban and rural measles transmission.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Coexisting attractors in the context of cross-scale population dynamics: measles in London as a case study.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2020Article
- First two months of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemic in China: real-time surveillance and evaluation with a second derivative model.Global health research and policy · 2020Article
- Long-term dynamics of measles in London: Titrating the impact of wars, the 1918 pandemic, and vaccination.PLoS computational biology · 2019Article
- Decreasing measles burden by optimizing campaign timing.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019Article
- A Network-Based Compartmental Model For The Spread Of Whooping Cough In Nebraska.AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science proceedings. AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science · 2019Article
- Project Tycho 2.0: a repository to improve the integration and reuse of data for global population health.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2018Article
- Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2018Article
- Epidemic dynamics, interactions and predictability of enteroviruses associated with hand, foot and mouth disease in Japan.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Epidemics of infectious diseases often occur in predictable limit cycles. Theory suggests these cycles can be disrupted by high amplitude seasonal fluctuations in transmission rates, resulting in deterministic chaos. However, persistent deterministic chaos has never been observed, in part because sufficiently large oscillations in transmission rates are uncommon. Where they do occur, the resulting deep epidemic troughs break the chain of transmission, leading to epidemic extinction, even in large cities. Here we demonstrate a new path to locally persistent chaotic epidemics via subtle shifts in seasonal patterns of transmission, rather than through high-amplitude fluctuations in transmission rates. We base our analysis on a comparison of measles incidence in 80 major cities in the prevaccination era United States and United Kingdom. Unlike the regular limit cycles seen in the UK, measles cycles in US cities consistently exhibit spontaneous shifts in epidemic periodicity resulting in chaotic patterns. We show that these patterns were driven by small systematic differences between countries in the duration of the summer period of low transmission. This example demonstrates empirically that small perturbations in disease transmission patterns can fundamentally alter the regularity and spatiotemporal coherence of epidemics.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.