ArticleHuman vaccines & immunotherapeutics2016
Current and future effects of varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in Germany - Insights from a mathematical model in a country with universal varicella vaccination.
Article in Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 30 citations in OpenAlex.
- Economic burden of varicella in Europe in the absence of universal varicella vaccination.BMC public health · 2021Pooled it
- BC02-adjuvanted varicella-zoster virus glycoprotein E subunit vaccine overcomes immunosenescence to induce robust neutralizing antibodies and multifunctional T-cell immunity in seropositive aged murine models.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- Universal varicella vaccination programmes in European countries and their effect: A systematic review.Public health in practice (Oxford, England) · 2026Article
- Article
- Determinants of Hospital Length of Stay in Herpes Zoster Patients: A Four-Year Retrospective Study.Health science reports · 2025Article
- Validating the Predictions of a Dynamic Transmission Model Using Real-World Data from a Universal Varicella Vaccination Program in Germany.Journal of market access & health policy · 2025Article
- Increasing hospitalisation of patients with herpes zoster ophthalmicus-an interdisciplinary retrospective analysis.Graefe's archive for clinical and experimental ophthalmology = Albrecht von Graefes Archiv fur klinische und experimentelle Ophthalmologie · 2024Article
- Epidemiological Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Varicella Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Cost-effectiveness of varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in Sweden: An economic evaluation using a dynamic transmission model.PloS one · 2021Article
- Global impact of varicella vaccination programs.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2019Review
- Trends in herpes zoster epidemiology in Germany based on primary care sentinel surveillance data, 2005-2016.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2018Article
- Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany - a mathematical modelling study.BMC medicine · 2018Article
- Varicella vaccination - the global experience.Expert review of vaccines · 2017Review
- Varicella-zoster virus seroprevalence in children and adolescents in the pre-varicella vaccine era, Germany.BMC infectious diseases · 2017Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Varicella zoster virus (VZV) is primarily known for causing varicella in childhood, but can reactivate again as herpes zoster (HZ) after a period of latency, mainly in persons older than 50 years. Universal varicella vaccination was introduced in Germany in 2004, while HZ vaccination has not been recommended yet. We aimed to quantify the potential long-term effects of universal childhood varicella vaccination and HZ vaccination of the elderly on varicella and HZ incidence in Germany over a time horizon of 100 years, using a transmission model calibrated to pre-vaccination data and validated against early post-vaccination data. Using current vaccination coverage rates of 87% (64%) with one (two) varicella vaccine dose(s), the model predicts a decrease in varicella cases by 89% for the year 2015. In the long run, the incidence reduction will stabilize at about 70%. Under the assumption of the boosting hypothesis of improved HZ protection caused by exposure to VZV, the model predicts a temporary increase in HZ incidence of up to 20% for around 50 years. HZ vaccination of the elderly with an assumed coverage of 20% has only limited effects in counteracting this temporary increase in HZ incidence. However, HZ incidence is shown to decrease in the long-term by 58% as vaccinated individuals get older and finally reach age-classes with originally high HZ incidence. Despite substantial uncertainties around several key variables, the model's results provide valuable insights that support decision-making regarding national VZV vaccination strategies.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.