ArticleBMJ open2016
Assessing herd immunity against rubella in Japan: a retrospective seroepidemiological analysis of age-dependent transmission dynamics.
Article in BMJ open, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Rubella and congenital rubella syndrome in the GCC countries: A retrospective ecological analysis of elimination progress and scenario-based projections, 2020-2024.Journal of virus eradication · 2026Article
- Reconstructing the transmission dynamics of varicella in Japan: an elevation of age at infection.PeerJ · 2022Article
- Rubella seroprevalence using residual samples from the South African measles surveillance program: a cross-sectional analytic study.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2020Article
- Temporary Fertility Decline after Large Rubella Outbreak, Japan.Emerging infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Review
- Strategies for elimination of rubella in pregnancy and of congenital rubella syndrome in high and upper-middle income countries.Journal of preventive medicine and hygiene · 2020Review
- Comparing catch-up vaccination programs based on analysis of 2012-13 rubella outbreak in Kawasaki City, Japan.PloS one · 2020Article
- Phylogeography of rubella virus in Asia: Vaccination and demography shape synchronous outbreaks.Epidemics · 2019Article
- Estimating the Force of Infection withThe Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2019Article
- Assessing the Effectiveness and Cost-Benefit of Test-and-Vaccinate Policy for Supplementary Vaccination against Rubella with Limited Doses.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Article
- Article
- History repeats itself in Japan: Failure to learn from rubella epidemic leads to failure to provide the HPV vaccine.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2017Article
- Rubella sero-prevalence among children in Kilimanjaro region: a community based study prior to the introduction of rubella vaccine in Tanzania.Italian journal of pediatrics · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveWe aimed to epidemiologically assess rubella herd immunity as a function of time, age and gender in Japan, with reference to the recent 2012-2014 rubella epidemic.
designThis study is a retrospective seroepidemiological analysis.
main outcome measuresThe susceptible fraction of the population was examined as a function of age and time. The age at infection was assessed using reported case data.
resultsWhereas 30 years ago rubella cases were seen only among children, the median (25-75th centiles) age of cases in 2014 was elevated to 32.0 (17.0-42.0) years among males and 27.0 (7.0-37.0) years among females. Susceptible pockets among male birth cohorts 1989-1993 and 1974-1978 were identified, with seropositive proportions of 70.0% and 68.0%, respectively. The majority of female age groups had greater seropositive proportions than the herd immunity threshold, with a minor susceptible pocket for those born from 1989 to 1993 (78.3% seropositive). The age-standardised seronegative proportion decreased to 18.3% (95% CI 16.8% to 19.8%) among males and 15.6% (95% CI 10.0% to 21.2%) among females in 2013, and the immune fraction was not sufficiently below the herd immunity threshold. While the number of live births born to susceptible mothers in 1983 was estimated at 171,876 across Japan, in 2013 it was reduced to 23,698.
conclusionsAn elevated age at rubella virus infection and the presence of susceptible pockets among adults were observed in Japan. Although, overall, the absolute number of rubella cases has steadily declined in Japan, the elevated age of rubella cases, along with increased numbers of susceptible adults, contributed to the observation of as many as 45 congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) cases, which calls for supplementary vaccination among susceptible adults. Assessing herd immunity is considered essential for routinely monitoring the risk of future rubella epidemics and CRS cases.
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