ArticleAIDS (London, England)2016
How many people are living with undiagnosed HIV infection? An estimate for Italy, based on surveillance data.
Article in AIDS (London, England), 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 31 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of models used to estimate undiagnosed HIV prevalence in high-income low-prevalence countries and territories.AIDS (London, England) · 2026Pooled it
- Acceptability and usability of HIV self-tests in two European countries: findings from surveys of clients at non-governmental organisations in Lithuania and Italy.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- The role of socio-demographic determinants in the geo-spatial distribution of newly diagnosed HIV infections in small areas of Catalonia (Spain).BMC public health · 2020Article
- Partial Achievement of the 90-90-90 UNAIDS Target in a Cohort of HIV Infected Patients from Central Italy.Mediterranean journal of hematology and infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Behavioural and demographic correlates of undiagnosed HIV infection in a MSM sample recruited in 13 European cities.BMC infectious diseases · 2018Article
- Undiagnosed HIV infections among gay and bisexual men increasingly contribute to new infections in Australia.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2018Article
- Predictors of retention in care in HIV-infected patients in a large hospital cohort in Italy.Epidemiology and infection · 2018Observational
- People living with undiagnosed HIV infection and a low CD4 count: estimates from surveillance data, Italy, 2012 to 2014.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2018Article
- Article
- High percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases within a hyperendemic South African community: a population-based study.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2018Article
- Continuum of care among HIV-1 positive patients in a single center in Italy (2007-2017).Patient preference and adherence · 2018Article
- [Cobatest network: users' characteristics of community-based voluntary,counselling and testing centres in Spain.]Revista espanola de salud publica · 2017Article
- Towards standardized definitions for monitoring the continuum of HIV care in Europe.AIDS (London, England) · 2017Article
- Occult HIV infection in a large sample of health-care users in Lombardy, Italy in 2014-2015: implications for control strategies.Epidemiology and infection · 2017Article
- The Human Immunodeficiency Virus Continuum of Care in European Union Countries in 2013: Data and Challenges.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2017Article
- Estimating HIV incidence and number of undiagnosed individuals living with HIV in the European Union/European Economic Area, 2015.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2016Article
- PEP and TasP Awareness among Italian MSM, PLWHA, and High-Risk Heterosexuals and Demographic, Behavioral, and Social Correlates.PloS one · 2016Article
- Estimating the First 90 of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 Goal: A Review.Journal of the International Association of Providers of AIDS CareReview
- Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo estimate the size and characteristics of the undiagnosed HIV population in Italy in 2012 applying a method that does not require surveillance data from the beginning of the HIV epidemic.
methodsWe adapted the method known as 'London method 2'; the undiagnosed population is estimated as the ratio between the estimated annual number of simultaneous HIV/clinical AIDS diagnoses and the expected annual progression rate to clinical AIDS in the undiagnosed HIV population; the latter is estimated using the CD4⁺ cell count distribution of asymptomatic patients reported to surveillance. Under-reporting/ascertainment of new diagnoses was also considered. Also, the total number of people living with HIV was estimated.
resultsThe undiagnosed HIV population in 2012 was 13,729 (95% confidence interval: 12,152-15,592), 15,102 (13,366-17,151) and 16,475 (14,581-18,710), assuming no under-reporting/ascertainment, 10 and 20% of under-reporting/ascertainment, respectively. The percentage of undiagnosed cases was higher among HIV people aged below 25 years (25-28%), MSM (16-19%) and people born abroad (16-19%), whereas it was small among injection drug users (3%).
conclusionThe estimate of people in Italy with undiagnosed HIV in 2012 was in a plausible range of 12,000-18,000 cases, corresponding to 11-13% of the overall prevalence. The method is straightforward to implement only requiring annual information from the HIV surveillance system about CD4⁺ cell count and clinical stage at HIV diagnosis. Thus, it could be used to monitor if a certain prevention initiative lead to the reduction of the undiagnosed HIV population over time. It can also be easily implemented in other countries collecting the same basic information from the HIV surveillance system.
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