ArticlePloS one2016
Six Year Refractive Change among White Children and Young Adults: Evidence for Significant Increase in Myopia among White UK Children.
Article in PloS one, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 67 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Management of Myopia in University Students Using Dual Focus Soft Contact Lenses
Effectiveness of Essilor® Stellest® Lenses in Slowing Down Myopia Progression in Young Adults
Who cites it
67 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 138 citations in OpenAlex.
- Refractive Error Centile Curves for Asian and Western Children and Adolescents: An Individual Level Meta-Analysis.Investigative ophthalmology & visual science · 2025Pooled it
- Interventions for myopia control in children: a living systematic review and network meta-analysis.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2025Pooled it
- Prevalence of clinically significant refractive error in children in Europe: Systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2025Pooled it
- Myopia management algorithm. Annexe to the article titled Update and guidance on management of myopia. European Society of Ophthalmology in cooperation with International Myopia Institute.European journal of ophthalmology · 2024Guideline
- Interventions for myopia control in children: a living systematic review and network meta-analysis.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2023Pooled it
- Vision screening for correctable visual acuity deficits in school-age children and adolescents.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2018Pooled it
- Low concentration atropine eye drops and progression of myopia in children: multicentre placebo controlled, double masked, randomised trial in the UK (CHAMP-UK).BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2026Trial
- Defocus Incorporated Multiple Segments (DIMS) spectacle lenses in UK children: Outcomes from a 2-year multi-site interventional trial.Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists) · 2025Trial
- Control of myopia using diffusion optics spectacle lenses: 4-year results of a multicentre randomised controlled, efficacy and safety study (CYPRESS).BMJ open ophthalmology · 2024Trial
- Prevalence and Possible Factors of Myopia in Norwegian Adolescents.Scientific reports · 2018Trial
- Incidence and Risk Factors of Refractive Error in Children in Spain: CISViT Project.Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists) · 2026Article
- Pre-Myopic Children: Trends in Myopia Development and Management in Canada.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- A Narrative Review of Childhood Myopia Management Across the NHS and Private Sector in the UK.Cureus · 2026Review
- Influence of Astigmatism Type on Myopia Progression Among Children Wearing Defocus Incorporated Multiple Segments (DIMS) Spectacle Lenses.Clinical ophthalmology (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2026Article
- Childhood myopia in the modern environment: modifiable risk factors and evidence-based prevention.International journal of ophthalmology · 2026Review
- The global landscape of myopia prevalence and its social determinants in children and adolescents: a cross-regional analysis.Frontiers in ophthalmology · 2026Article
- Association between physical exercise based on FITT principle and vision health among primary school students in Suzhou, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- The prevalence and costs of optical correction for childhood myopia in Scotland.Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists) · 2025Article
- Influence of dynamic changes of ocular biometric parameters on new-onset myopia in Chinese children: a 4-year cohort study.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Prevalence of myopia in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis of data from 14 countries.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Article
7 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo determine six-year spherical refractive error change among white children and young adults in the UK and evaluate differences in refractive profiles between contemporary Australian children and historical UK data.
designPopulation-based prospective study.
participantsThe Northern Ireland Childhood Errors of Refraction (NICER) study Phase 1 examined 1068 children in two cohorts aged 6-7 years and 12-13 years. Prospective data for six-year follow-up (Phase 3) are available for 212 12-13 year olds and 226 18-20 year olds in each cohort respectively.
methodsCycloplegic refractive error was determined using binocular open-field autorefraction (Shin-Nippon NVision-K 5001, cyclopentolate 1%). Participants were defined by spherical equivalent refraction (SER) as myopic SER ≤-0.50D, emmetropic -0.50D<SER<+2.00 or hyperopic SER≥+2.00D.
main outcome measuresProportion and incidence of myopia.
resultsThe proportion of myopes significantly increased between 6-7 years (1.9%) and 12-13 years (14.6%) (p<0.001) but not between 12-13 and 18-20 years (16.4% to 18.6%, p = 0.51). The estimated annual incidence of myopia was 2.2% and 0.7% for the younger and older cohorts respectively. There were significantly more myopic children in the UK at age 12-13 years in the NICER study (16.4%) than reported in Australia (4.4%) (p<0.001). However by 17 years the proportion of myopia neared equivalence in the two populations (NICER 18.6%, Australia 17.7%, p = 0.75). The proportion of myopic children aged 12-13 years in the present study (2006-2008) was 16.4%, significantly greater than that reported for children aged 10-16 years in the 1960's (7.2%, p = 0.01). The proportion of hyperopes in the younger NICER cohort decreased significantly over the six year period (from 21.7% to 14.2%, p = 0.04). Hyperopes with SER ≥+3.50D in both NICER age cohorts demonstrated persistent hyperopia.
conclusionsThe incidence and proportion of myopia are relatively low in this contemporary white UK population in comparison to other worldwide studies. The proportion of myopes in the UK has more than doubled over the last 50 years in children aged between 10-16 years and children are becoming myopic at a younger age. Differences between the proportion of myopes in the UK and in Australia apparent at 12-13 years were eliminated by 17 years of age.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.