Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26782855›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Geriatrics Society2016

Survival Prognosis in Very Old Adults.

Mikael Thinggaard, Matt McGue, Bernard Jeune, Merete Osler, James W Vaupel, Kaare Christensen

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Machine learning prediction of survival in centenarians after age 100: a retrospective, population-based cohort study.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2025
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  20. Are Advances in Survival Among the Oldest Old Seen Across the Spectrum of Health and Functioning?The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2020
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Mikael ThinggaardDanish Aging Research Center, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
Matt McGueEpidemiology, Biostatistics and Biodemography, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
Bernard JeuneDanish Aging Research Center, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
Merete OslerDanish Aging Research Center, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
James W VaupelDanish Aging Research Center, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
Kaare ChristensenDanish Aging Research Center, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.

Funding

TRAJECTORIES OF MORTALITY IN CAENORHABDITIS ELEGANSP01AG008761 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA TWIN CITIES · PI ROACH, DEBORAH A · 1990 to 2008
$17.5M
NIA NIH HHS P01 AG008761NIA NIH HHS P01-AG08761
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo determine whether simple functional indicators are predictors of survival prognosis in very old adults.

designIn-person survey conducted over a 3-month period in 1998; assessment of survival over a 15-year follow-up period.

settingDenmark.

participantsAll 3,600 Danes born in 1905 and living in Denmark in 1998, were invited to participate regardless of residence and health; 2,262 (63%) participated in the survey: 1,814 (80.2%) in person and 448 (19.8%) through a proxy. MEASUREMENTS: Socioeconomic factors, medications and diseases, activities of daily living, physical performance, cognition, depression symptomatology, self-rated health, and all-cause mortality, evaluated as average remaining lifespan and chance of surviving to 100 years.

resultsMen aged 92 to 93 had an overall 6.0% chance of surviving to 100 years, whereas the chance for women was 11.4%. Being able to rise without use of hands increased the chance for men to 11.2% (95% confidence interval (CI)=7.7-14.7) and for women to 22.0% (95% CI=18.9-25.1). When combining this with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from 28 to 30, the chances were 21.7% (95% CI=11.5-31.9) for men and 34.2% (95% CI=24.8-43.5) for women.

conclusionChair stand score combined with MMSE score is a quick and easy way to estimate overall chance of survival in very old adults, which is particularly relevant when treatment with potential side effects for nonacute diseases is considered.

Indexed as

Activities of Daily LivingForecastingSurvival AnalysisAged, 80 and overCognitionDenmarkFemaleGeriatric AssessmentHumansMalePrognosisRetrospective StudiesSurvival Ratechair standclinical decisionMini-Mental State Examinationmortalitynonagenarians

Identifiers

PMID26782855
PMCPMC4749674

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.