ArticleBMC public health2016
Estimating the potential contribution of stroke treatments and preventative policies to reduce the stroke and ischemic heart disease mortality in Turkey up to 2032: a modelling study.
Article in BMC public health, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Modelling health and economic impact of nutrition interventions: a systematic review.European journal of clinical nutrition · 2023Pooled it
- Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.Circulation research · 2017Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundStroke and Ischemic Heart Diseases (IHD) are the main cause of premature deaths globally, including Turkey. There is substantial potential to reduce stroke and IHD mortality burden; particularly by improving diet and health behaviours at the population level. Our aim is to estimate and compare the potential impact of ischemic stroke treatment vs population level policies on ischemic stroke and IHD deaths in Turkey if achieved like other developed countries up to 2022 and 2032.
methodsWe developed a Markov model for the Turkish population aged >35 years. The model follows the population over a time horizon of 10 and 20 years. We modelled seven policy scenarios: a baseline scenario, three ischemic stroke treatment improvement scenarios and three population level policy intervention scenarios (based on target reductions in dietary salt, transfat and unsaturated fat intake, smoking prevalence and increases in fruit and vegetable consumption). Parameter uncertainty was explored by including probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
resultsIn the baseline scenario, we forecast that approximately 655,180 ischemic stroke and IHD deaths (306,500 in men; 348,600 in women) may occur in the age group of 35-94 between 2012 and 2022 in Turkey. Feasible interventions in population level policies might prevent approximately 108,000 (62,580-326,700) fewer stroke and IHD deaths. This could result in approximately a 17% reduction in total stroke and IHD deaths in 2022. Approximately 32%, 29%, 11% and 6% of that figure could be attributed to a decreased consumption of transfat, dietary salt, saturated fats and fall in smoking prevalence and 22% could be attributed to increased fruit and vegetable consumption. Feasible improvements in ischemic stroke treatment could prevent approximately 9% fewer ischemic stroke and IHD deaths by 2022.
conclusionsOur modeling study suggests that effective and evidence-based food policies at the population level could massively contribute to reduction in ischemic stroke and IHD mortality in a decade and deliver bigger gains compared to healthcare based interventions for primary and secondary prevention.
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