Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26763239›Full record

ArticleNorth Carolina medical journal

Estimating the Burden of Pandemic Infectious Disease: The Case of the Second Wave of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 in Forsyth County, North Carolina.

Timothy R Peters, Beverly M Snively, Cynthia K Suerken, Werner Bischoff, Lauren Vannoy, Elizabeth Blakeney, Tammy Bischoff, Elizabeth Palavecino, Robert Sherertz, Katherine A Poehling

Open access · diamondAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in North Carolina medical journal. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
0.7field-weighted citation impact, top 26% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 5 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Trial
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Timothy R Petersassociate professor, Departments of Pediatrics, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina tpeters@wakehealth.edu.
Beverly M Snivelyprofessor, Biostatistical Sciences, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Cynthia K Suerkenbiostatistician, Biostatistical Sciences, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Werner Bischoffdirector of infection control and associate professor, Internal Medicine, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Lauren Vannoyresearch associate, Departments of Pediatrics, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Elizabeth Blakeneyresearch associate, Departments of Pediatrics, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Tammy Bischoffpublic health epidemiologist, Internal Medicine, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Elizabeth Palavecinoassociate professor, Pathology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Robert Sherertzprofessor, Internal Medicine, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Katherine A Poehlingprofessor, Departments of Pediatrics, Epidemiology and Prevention, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Wake Forest University · US

Funding

The Movement of Influenza Virus In Human PopulationR01AI079226 · NIAID · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI POEHLING, KATHERINE A · 2009 to 2013
$3.3M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI079226
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundUnderstanding the burden of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus during the second wave of 2009-2010 is important for future pandemic planning.

methodsPersons who presented to the emergency department (ED) or were hospitalized with fever and/or acute respiratory symptoms at the academic medical center in Forsyth County, North Carolina were prospectively enrolled and underwent nasal/throat swab testing for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus identified through active surveillance were compared by capture-recapture analysis to those identified through independent, passive surveillance (physician-ordered influenza testing). This approach estimated the number of total cases, including those not captured by either surveillance method. A second analysis estimated the total number of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases by multiplying weekly influenza percentages determined via active surveillance by weekly counts of influenza-associated discharge diagnoses from administrative data. Market share adjustments were used to estimate influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus ED visits or hospitalizations per 1,000 residents.

resultsCapture-recapture analysis estimated that 753 residents (95% confidence interval [CI], 424-2,735) with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus were seen in the academic medical center from September 2009 through mid-April 2010; this result yielded an estimated 4.7 (95% CI, 2.6-16.9) influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus ED visits or hospitalizations per 1,000 residents. Similarly, 708 visits were estimated using weekly influenza percentages and influenza-associated discharge diagnoses, yielding an estimated 4.4 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus ED visits or hospitalizations per 1,000 residents.

conclusionThis study demonstrates that the burden of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in ED and inpatient settings by capture-recapture analysis was 4-5 per 1,000 residents; this rate was approximately 8-fold higher than that detected by physician-ordered influenza testing.

Indexed as

Influenza A Virus, H1N1 SubtypePandemicsAdolescentAdultChildChild, PreschoolEmergency Service, HospitalFemaleHumansInfantInfant, NewbornInfluenza, HumanMaleMiddle AgedNorth CarolinaYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID26763239
PMCPMC4714769
OpenAlexW2308646150

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.