ArticleBulletin of mathematical biology2016
Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers.
Article in Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The use and reporting of airline passenger data for infectious disease modelling: a systematic review.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Pooled it
- Incidence, Duration, and Risk Factors for Diagnostic Delays Associated with Dengue: A Population-Based Study.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
- Mechanistic Modeling ofGeoHealth · 2025Article
- A study on prosocial behavior of wearing a mask and self-quarantining to prevent the spread of diseases underpinned by evolutionary game theory.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Estimation of Human Mobility Patterns for Forecasting the Early Spread of Disease.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Prosocial behavior of wearing a mask during an epidemic: an evolutionary explanation.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- An evolutionary game modeling to assess the effect of border enforcement measures and socio-economic cost: Export-importation epidemic dynamics.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2021Article
- COVID-19 in comparison with other emerging viral diseases: risk of geographic spread via travel.Tropical diseases, travel medicine and vaccines · 2021Review
- Migration rate estimation in an epidemic network.Applied mathematical modelling · 2021Article
- Quarantine and the risk of COVID-19 importation.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
- Two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spreading of a novel virus from the outbreak epicentre. The case of COVID-19.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
- The Relationship between the Migrant Population's Migration Network and the Risk of COVID-19 Transmission in China-Empirical Analysis and Prediction in Prefecture-Level Cities.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- A Study of the Impact of Internet-Based Instruction Integrated Innovation Education on University Student Entrepreneurial Team Collaboration and Strategic Innovation.Frontiers in psychology · 2020Article
- Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018Article
- Risk of Dengue in Travelers: Implications for Dengue Vaccination.Current infectious disease reports · 2018Review
- Estimating the number of unvaccinated Chinese workers against yellow fever in Angola.BMC infectious diseases · 2018Article
- Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Novel tools for the surveillance and control of dengue: findings by the DengueTools research consortium.Global health action · 2018Article
- A Note on the Risk of Infections Invading Unaffected Regions.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2018Article
- Estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases from under-reported age-dependent compulsorily notification databases.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This paper is an attempt to estimate the risk of infection importation and exportation by travelers. Two countries are considered: one disease-free country and one visited or source country with a running endemic or epidemic infectious disease. Two models are considered. In the first model (disease importation), susceptible individuals travel from their disease-free home country to the endemic country and come back after some weeks. The risk of infection spreading in their home country is then estimated supposing the visitors are submitted to the same force of infection as the local population but do not contribute to it. In the second model (disease exportation), it is calculated the probability that an individual from the endemic (or epidemic) country travels to a disease-free country in the condition of latent infected and eventually introduces the infection there. The input of both models is the force of infection at the visited/source country, assumed known. The models are deterministic, but a preliminary stochastic formulation is presented as an appendix. The models are exemplified with two distinct real situations: the risk of dengue importation from Thailand to Europe and the risk of Ebola exportation from Liberia to the USA.
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