Thoughts Toward a Theory of Natural Selection: The Importance of Microbial Experimental Evolution.

Natural selection should no longer be thought of simply as a primitive (magical) concept that can be used to support all kinds of evolutionary theorizing. We need to develop causal theories of natural selection; how it arises. Because the factors contributing to the creation of natural selection are expected to be complex and intertwined, theories explaining the causes of natural selection can only be developed through the experimental method. Microbial experimental evolution provides many benefits that using other organisms does not. Microorganisms are small, so millions can be housed in a test tube; they have short generation times, so evolution over hundreds of generations can be easily studied; they can grow in chemically defined media, so the environment can be precisely defined; and they can be frozen, so the fitness of strains or populations can be directly compared across time. Microbial evolution experiments can be divided into two types. The first is to measure the selection coefficient of two known strains over the first 50 or so generations, before advantageous mutations rise to high frequency. This type of experiment can be used to directly test hypotheses. The second is to allow microbial cultures to evolve over many hundreds or thousands of generations and follow the genetic changes, to infer what phenotypes are selected. In the last section of this article, I propose that selection coefficients are not constant, but change as the population becomes fitter, introducing the idea of the selection space.