ArticleIranian journal of public health2015
Predicting the Incidence of Smear Positive Tuberculosis Cases in Iran Using Time Series Analysis.
Article in Iranian journal of public health, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Drivers of Seasonal Variation in Tuberculosis Incidence: Insights from a Systematic Review and Mathematical Model.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2018Pooled it
- Optimizing Tuberculosis Incidence Prediction: A Systematic Review of Hybrid Modeling Approaches and Machine Learning Techniques.Public health challenges · 2026Review
- Impact of policy shifts and festival holidays on tuberculosis surveillance: a time-series analysis in Southwest China (2014-2024).Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Predicting the Incidence Rate of Tuberculosis in Western Iran Using Time Series Models Before and After COVID-19.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2025Article
- Tuberculosis incidence in Brazil: time series analysis between 2001 and 2021 and projection until 2030.Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Article
- Article
- Temporal trends and prediction of bovine tuberculosis: a time series analysis in the North-East of Iran.Iranian journal of veterinary research · 2022Article
- Spatiotemporal characteristics and the epidemiology of tuberculosis in China from 2004 to 2017 by the nationwide surveillance system.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Identification and Prediction of Tuberculosis in Eastern China: Analyses from 10-year Population-based Notification Data in Zhejiang Province, China.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Statistical methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence based on data from Guangxi, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Treatment default and its related factors among tuberculosis patients, a case-control study in Iran.GMS hygiene and infection control · 2020Article
- Temporal trends analysis of tuberculosis morbidity in mainland China from 1997 to 2025 using a new SARIMA-NARNNX hybrid model.BMJ open · 2019Article
- Observational
- Forecasting the seasonality and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Jiangsu Province of China using advanced statistical time-series analyses.Infection and drug resistance · 2019Article
- Estimating the incidence of tuberculosis cases reported at a tertiary hospital in Ghana: a time series model approach.BMC public health · 2018Article
- Development and validation of a predictive ecological model for TB prevalence.International journal of epidemiology · 2018Article
- The influence of meteorological factors on tuberculosis incidence in Southwest China from 2006 to 2015.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Distribution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Korea in the preceding decade.Journal of clinical laboratory analysis · 2018Article
- Predicting trend of early childhood caries in mainland China: a combined meta-analytic and mathematical modelling approach based on epidemiological surveys.Scientific reports · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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4 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDetermining the temporal variation and forecasting the incidence of smear positive tuberculosis (TB) can play an important role in promoting the TB control program. Its results may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning and allocating resources. The present study forecasts the incidence of smear positive TB in Iran.
methodsThis a longitudinal study using monthly tuberculosis incidence data recorded in the Iranian National Tuberculosis Control Program. The sum of registered cases in each month created 84 time points. Time series methods were used for analysis. Based on the residual chart of ACF, PACF, Ljung-Box tests and the lowest levels of AIC and BIC, the most suitable model was selected.
resultsFrom April 2005 until March 2012, 34012 smear positive TB cases were recorded. The mean of TB monthly incidence was 404.9 (SD=54.7). The highest number of cases was registered in May and the difference in monthly incidence of smear positive TB was significant (P<0.001). SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 was selected as the most adequate model for prediction. It was predicted that the incidence of smear positive TB for 2015 will be about 9.8 per 100,000 people.
conclusionBased on the seasonal pattern of smear positive TB recorded cases, seasonal ARIMA model was suitable for predicting its incidence. Meanwhile, prediction results show an increasing trend of smear positive TB cases in Iran.
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