ArticlePloS one2015
A Scoring Tool to Identify East African HIV-1 Serodiscordant Partnerships with a High Likelihood of Pregnancy.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Development and validation of a prediction tool to support engagement in HIV care among young people ages 10-24 years in Kenya.PloS one · 2023Article
- Implementation of a comprehensive safer conception intervention for HIV-serodiscordant couples in Kenya: uptake, use and effectiveness.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2019Article
- A Risk Assessment Tool for Identifying Pregnant and Postpartum Women Who May Benefit From Preexposure Prophylaxis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2017Article
- PrEP as Peri-conception HIV Prevention for Women and Men.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2016Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
introductionHIV-1 prevention programs targeting HIV-1 serodiscordant couples need to identify couples that are likely to become pregnant to facilitate discussions about methods to minimize HIV-1 risk during pregnancy attempts (i.e. safer conception) or effective contraception when pregnancy is unintended. A clinical prediction tool could be used to identify HIV-1 serodiscordant couples with a high likelihood of pregnancy within one year.
methodsUsing standardized clinical prediction methods, we developed and validated a tool to identify heterosexual East African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples with an increased likelihood of becoming pregnant in the next year. Datasets were from three prospectively followed cohorts, including nearly 7,000 couples from Kenya and Uganda participating in HIV-1 prevention trials and delivery projects.
resultsThe final score encompassed the age of the woman, woman's number of children living, partnership duration, having had condomless sex in the past month, and non-use of an effective contraceptive. The area under the curve (AUC) for the probability of the score to correctly predict pregnancy was 0.74 (95% CI 0.72-0.76). Scores ≥ 7 predicted a pregnancy incidence of >17% per year and captured 78% of the pregnancies. Internal and external validation confirmed the predictive ability of the score. DISCUSSION: A pregnancy likelihood score encompassing basic demographic, clinical and behavioral factors defined African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples with high one-year pregnancy incidence rates. This tool could be used to engage African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in counseling discussions about fertility intentions in order to offer services for safer conception or contraception that align with their reproductive goals.
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