ArticlePeerJ2015
2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) nosocomial outbreak in South Korea: insights from modeling.
Article in PeerJ, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed, 61 citations in OpenAlex.
- Attribution of nosocomial seeding to long-term care facility COVID-19 outbreaks.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- Mathematical analysis of stochastic epidemic model of MERS-corona & application of ergodic theory.Mathematics and computers in simulation · 2023Article
- Importation, Local Transmission, and Model Selection in Estimating the Transmissibility of COVID-19: The Outbreak in Shaanxi Province of China as a Case Study.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- A Quick Laboratory Method for Assessment of Blood Penetration and Splash Resistance of PPE Fabrics During the COVID-19 Pandemic Situation.Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an international journal of engineering and technology · 2022Article
- Article
- A Conceptual Discussion About the Basic Reproduction Number of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Healthcare Settings.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- SARS-COV-2 outbreak and control in Kenya - Mathematical model analysis.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Observations of the global epidemiology of COVID-19 from the prepandemic period using web-based surveillance: a cross-sectional analysis.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2020Article
- SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing.BMC research notes · 2020Article
- A realistic two-strain model for MERS-CoV infection uncovers the high risk for epidemic propagation.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2020Article
- A Methodology for Determining Which Diseases Warrant Care in a High-Level Containment Care Unit.Viruses · 2019Article
- Co-localization of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 in the respiratory tract and lymphoid tissues of pigs and llamas.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2019Article
- High reproduction number of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in nosocomial outbreaks: mathematical modelling in Saudi Arabia and South Korea.The Journal of hospital infection · 2018Article
- In Vitro Bactericidal and Virucidal Efficacy of Povidone-Iodine Gargle/Mouthwash Against Respiratory and Oral Tract Pathogens.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2018Article
- MERS-CoV infection in humans is associated with a pro-inflammatory Th1 and Th17 cytokine profile.Cytokine · 2018Article
- Performance of materials used for biological personal protective equipment against blood splash penetration.Industrial health · 2017Article
- Effects of Timely Control Intervention on the Spread of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection.Osong public health and research perspectives · 2017Article
- MERS-CoV Infection in a Pregnant Woman in Korea.Journal of Korean medical science · 2017Article
- Estimating and modelling the transmissibility of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus during the 2015 outbreak in the Republic of Korea.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2017Article
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1 author at 1 institution in 1 country.
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Abstract
Background. Since the emergence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, more than 1,300 laboratory confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infections have been reported in Asia, North Africa, and Europe by July 2015. The recent MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak in South Korea quickly became the second largest such outbreak with 186 total cases and 36 deaths in a little more than one month, second only to Saudi Arabia in country-specific number of reported cases. Methods. We use a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to trace the temporal course of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak. We pinpoint its outbreak turning point and its transmissibility via basic reproduction number R 0 in order to ascertain the occurrence of this nosocomial outbreak and how it was quickly brought under control. Results. The estimated outbreak turning point of ti = 23.3 days (95% CI [22.6-24.0]), or 23-24 days after the onset date of the index case on May 11, pinpoints June 3-4 as the time of the turning point or the peak incidence for this outbreak by onset date. R 0 is estimated to range between 7.0 and 19.3. Discussion and Conclusion. The turning point of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak occurred around May 27-29, when control measures were quickly implemented after laboratory confirmation of the first cluster of nosocomial infections by the index patient. Furthermore, transmissibility of MERS-CoV in the South Korea outbreak was significantly higher than those reported from past MERS-CoV outbreaks in the Middle East, which is attributable to the nosocomial nature of this outbreak. Our estimate of R 0 for the South Korea MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak further highlights the importance and the risk involved in cluster infections and superspreading events in crowded settings such as hospitals. Similar to the 2003 SARS epidemic, outbreaks of infectious diseases with low community transmissibility like MERS-CoV could still occur initially with large clusters of nosocomial infections, but can be quickly and effectively controlled with timely intervention measures.
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