Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26709141›Full record

SynthesisJournal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines2016

Heritability of autism spectrum disorders: a meta-analysis of twin studies.

Beata Tick, Patrick Bolton, Francesca Happé, Michael Rutter, Frühling Rijsdijk

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic ReviewTwin Study
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 539 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
539citing papers in PubMed, 10 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

539 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Systematic review of measures and interventions for caregiver adjustment to child autism diagnosis.Autism : the international journal of research and practice · 2026
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  5. The Association Between Maternal Asthma and Child Autism: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Autism research : official journal of the International Society for Autism Research · 2025
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  20. Sleep in Young Children With Autism, ADHD and Combined Presentations.Autism research : official journal of the International Society for Autism Research · 2026
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479 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Beata TickMRC Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, IOPPN, King's College London, London, UK.
Patrick BoltonMRC Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, IOPPN, King's College London, London, UK.
Francesca HappéMRC Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, IOPPN, King's College London, London, UK.
Michael RutterMRC Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, IOPPN, King's College London, London, UK.
Frühling RijsdijkMRC Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, IOPPN, King's College London, London, UK.

Funding

Medical Research Council G0500079Medical Research Council G0500870Medical Research Council G0901245Medical Research Council G9817803Medical Research Council MR/J500380/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe etiology of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) has been recently debated due to emerging findings on the importance of shared environmental influences. However, two recent twin studies do not support this and instead re-affirm strong genetic effects on the liability to ASD, a finding consistent with previous reports. This study conducts a systematic review and meta-analysis of all twin studies of ASD published to date and explores the etiology along the continuum of a quantitative measure of ASD.

methodsA PubMed Central, Science Direct, Google Scholar, Web of Knowledge structured search conducted online, to identify all twin studies on ASD published to date. Thirteen primary twin studies were identified, seven were included in the meta-analysis by meeting Systematic Recruitment criterion; correction for selection and ascertainment strategies, and applied prevalences were assessed for these studies. In addition, a quantile DF extremes analysis was carried out on Childhood Autism Spectrum Test scores measured in a population sample of 6,413 twin pairs including affected twins.

resultsThe meta-analysis correlations for monozygotic twins (MZ) were almost perfect at .98 (95% Confidence Interval, .96-.99). The dizygotic (DZ) correlation, however, was .53 (95% CI .44-.60) when ASD prevalence rate was set at 5% (in line with the Broad Phenotype of ASD) and increased to .67 (95% CI .61-.72) when applying a prevalence rate of 1%. The meta-analytic heritability estimates were substantial: 64-91%. Shared environmental effects became significant as the prevalence rate decreased from 5-1%: 07-35%. The DF analyses show that for the most part, there is no departure from linearity in heritability.

conclusionsWe demonstrate that: (a) ASD is due to strong genetic effects; (b) shared environmental effects become significant as a function of lower prevalence rate; (c) previously reported significant shared environmental influences are likely a statistical artefact of overinclusion of concordant DZ twins.

Indexed as

Autism Spectrum DisorderDiseases in TwinsGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseHumansAutism spectrum disordersDF extremes analysisheritabilitymeta-analysistwin studies

Identifiers

PMID26709141
PMCPMC4996332

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.