ArticleBMC health services research2015
The effect of trends in health and longevity on health services use by older adults.
Article in BMC health services research, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 35 citations in OpenAlex.
- Consequences of Population Ageing on Health Systems: A Conceptual Framework for Policy and Practice.Ethiopian journal of health sciences · 2025Pooled it
- Association Between Physical Activity Levels and Life Functioning in Korean Older Adults: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the 2024 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Roles and experiences of nurses in primary health care during the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.BMC nursing · 2024Article
- Can higher spending on primary healthcare mitigate the impact of ageing and non-communicable diseases on health expenditure?BMJ global health · 2022Article
- Analysis of Healthcare Expenditures in Bulgaria.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Implementation of a health education program in Asia, comparing Thailand, Indonesia, and Japan.Technology and health care : official journal of the European Society for Engineering and Medicine · 2022Article
- Geographical distinctions of longevity indicators and their correlation with climatic factors in the area where most Chinese Yao are distributed.International journal of biometeorology · 2022Article
- Adherence to the Mediterranean diet assessed by a novel dietary biomarker score and mortality in older adults: the InCHIANTI cohort study.BMC medicine · 2021Article
- Emergency hospital admissions among older adults living alone in the community.BMC health services research · 2021Article
- The rise of metastatic bone disease in Ireland.Clinical & experimental metastasis · 2020Article
- Developing patient-centric medicines for older people: Reflections from the draft EMA paper on the pharmaceutical development of medicines for use in the older population.British journal of clinical pharmacology · 2020Review
- Article
- Transitioning of older Australian women into and through the long-term care system: a cohort study using linked data.BMC geriatrics · 2019Article
- Patterns of home and community care use among older participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health.European journal of ageing · 2019Article
- Article
- Multiple chronic condition profiles and survival among oldest-old male patients with hip fracture.Archives of gerontology and geriatrics · 2018Article
- Spatio-Temporal Variation of Longevity Clusters and the Influence of Social Development Level on Lifespan in a Chinese Longevous Area (1982-2010).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2017Article
- Variations in disability and quality of life with age and sex between eight lower income and middle-income countries: data from the INDEPTH WHO-SAGE collaboration.BMJ global health · 2017Article
- The Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam: cohort update 2016 and major findings.European journal of epidemiology · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe effect of population aging on future health services use depends on the relationship between longevity gains and health. Whether further gains in life expectancy will be paired by improvements in health is uncertain. We therefore analyze the effect of population ageing on health services use under different health scenarios. We focus on the possibly diverging trends between different dimensions of health and their effect on health services use.
methodsUsing longitudinal data on health and health services use, a latent Markov model has been estimated that includes different dimensions of health. We use this model to perform a simulation study and analyze the health dynamics that drive the effect of population aging. We simulate three health scenarios on the relationship between longevity and health (expansion of morbidity, compression of morbidity, and the dynamic equilibrium scenario). We use the scenarios to predict costs of health services use in the Netherlands between 2010 and 2050.
resultsHospital use is predicted to decline after 2040, whereas long-term care will continue to rise up to 2050. Considerable differences in expenditure growth rates between scenarios with the same life expectancy but different trends in health are found. Compression of morbidity generally leads to the lowest growth. The effect of additional life expectancy gains within the same health scenario is relatively small for hospital care, but considerable for long-term care.
conclusionsBy comparing different health scenarios resulting in the same life expectancy, we show that health improvements do contain costs when they decrease morbidity but not mortality. This suggests that investing in healthy aging can contribute to containing health expenditure growth.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.