ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2016
A System Dynamics Model of Serum Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening for Prostate Cancer.
Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 12 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Pooled it
- [Progress on the application of system dynamics model in the field of health management].Zhejiang da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences · 2025Review
- Systems mapping: a novel approach to national lung cancer screening implementation in Australia.Translational lung cancer research · 2024Review
- Personalized strategies in population screening for prostate cancer.International journal of cancer · 2020Review
- Designing an Agent-Based Model Using Group Model Building: Application to Food Insecurity Patterns in a U.S. Midwestern Metropolitan City.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2018Article
- The efficacy of prostate-specific antigen screening: Impact of key components in the ERSPC and PLCO trials.Cancer · 2018Article
- Prostate cancer screening: what can we learn from randomised trials?Translational andrology and urology · 2018Review
- Surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy of serum accurately detects prostate cancer in patients with prostate-specific antigen levels of 4-10 ng/mL.International journal of nanomedicine · 2017Article
- Prostate cancer: Prudent practice optimizes screening outcomes.Nature reviews. Urology · 2016Review
- Re: "A System Dynamics Model of Serum Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening for Prostate Cancer".American journal of epidemiology · 2016Article
- A Social Ecological Model of Syndemic Risk affecting Women with and At-Risk for HIV in Impoverished Urban Communities.American journal of community psychology · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Since 2012, US guidelines have recommended against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer. However, evidence of screening benefit from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening trial and the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer has been inconsistent, due partly to differences in noncompliance and contamination. Using system dynamics modeling, we replicated the PLCO trial and extrapolated follow-up to 20 years. We then simulated 3 scenarios correcting for contamination in the PLCO control arm using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence and survival data collected prior to the PSA screening era (scenario 1), SEER data collected during the PLCO trial period (1993-2001) (scenario 2), and data from the European trial's control arm (1991-2005) (scenario 3). In all scenarios, noncompliance was corrected using incidence and survival rates for men with screen-detected cancer in the PLCO screening arm. Scenarios 1 and 3 showed a benefit of PSA screening, with relative risks of 0.62 (95% confidence interval: 0.53, 0.72) and 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.83) for cancer-specific mortality after 20 years, respectively. In scenario 2, however, there was no benefit of screening. This simulation showed that after correcting for noncompliance and contamination, there is potential benefit of PSA screening in reducing prostate cancer mortality. It also demonstrates the utility of system dynamics modeling for synthesizing epidemiologic evidence to inform public policy.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.