ArticlePloS one2015
Hitting a Moving Target: A Model for Malaria Elimination in the Presence of Population Movement.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 30 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Targeted Test and Treat at Point of Entry to Reduce Importation of Malaria Parasites: A Systematic Review.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Pooled it
- Testing and treatment for malaria elimination: a systematic review.Malaria journal · 2023Pooled it
- Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Pooled it
- Estimating the potential impact of surveillance test-and-treat posts to reduce malaria in border regions in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Climate Change and Malaria: A Call for Robust Analytics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Advancing malaria reactive case detection in a Zambia-like setting: A modeling study.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- The potential of gene drives in malaria vector species to control malaria in African environments.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Article
- Livelihood activities, human mobility, and risk of malaria infection in elimination settings: a case-control study.Malaria journal · 2023Article
- Understanding Spatiotemporal Human Mobility Patterns for Malaria Control Using a Multiagent Mobility Simulation Model.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Article
- Investment case for malaria elimination in South Africa: a financing model for resource mobilization to accelerate regional malaria elimination.Malaria journal · 2021Article
- Operational research: A multidisciplinary approach for the management of infectious disease in a global context.European journal of operational research · 2021Article
- Targeting Malaria Hotspots to Reduce Transmission Incidence in Senegal.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Influx of diverse, drug resistant and transmissible Plasmodium falciparum into a malaria-free setting in Qatar.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Applied mathematical modelling to inform national malaria policies, strategies and operations in Tanzania.Malaria journal · 2020Article
- An efficient and novel technology for the extraction of parasite genomic DNA from whole blood or culture.BioTechniques · 2020Article
- Simulating the council-specific impact of anti-malaria interventions: A tool to support malaria strategic planning in Tanzania.PloS one · 2020Article
- Human population movement and behavioural patterns in malaria hotspots on the Thai-Myanmar border: implications for malaria elimination.Malaria journal · 2019Observational
- Malaria programme personnel's experiences, perceived barriers and facilitators to implementing malaria elimination strategy in South Africa.Malaria journal · 2018Article
- malERA: An updated research agenda for combination interventions and modelling in malaria elimination and eradication.PLoS medicine · 2017Review
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
South Africa is committed to eliminating malaria with a goal of zero local transmission by 2018. Malaria elimination strategies may be unsuccessful if they focus only on vector biology, and ignore the mobility patterns of humans, particularly where the majority of infections are imported. In the first study in Mpumalanga Province in South Africa designed for this purpose, a metapopulation model is developed to assess the impact of their proposed elimination-focused policy interventions. A stochastic, non-linear, ordinary-differential equation model is fitted to malaria data from Mpumalanga and neighbouring Maputo Province in Mozambique. Further scaling-up of vector control is predicted to lead to a minimal reduction in local infections, while mass drug administration and focal screening and treatment at the Mpumalanga-Maputo border are predicted to have only a short-lived impact. Source reduction in Maputo Province is predicted to generate large reductions in local infections through stemming imported infections. The mathematical model predicts malaria elimination to be possible only when imported infections are treated before entry or eliminated at the source suggesting that a regionally focused strategy appears needed, for achieving malaria elimination in Mpumalanga and South Africa.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.