Predictive scores for mortality in full-term infants with necrotizing enterocolitis: experience of a tertiary hospital in Southwest China.

backgroundAlthough many risk factors for mortality of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) were investigated, most of them were obtained from preterm infants, and few works focused on the prognostic risk factors in fullterm infants. This study aimed to identify risk factors and develop a prediction score model for mortality in fullterm neonates with NEC.

methodsThe risk factors were analyzed retrospectively by bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis in 153 full-term neonates with NEC, who were hospitalized in Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from 2000 to 2013. A prediction score model was developed according to the regression coefficients of risk factors.

resultsThe mortality of the infants was 19.6% (30/153). The non-survivors had a younger age of diagnosis and advanced stage of NEC (P<0.05). They had a higher prevalence of respiratory failure, intestinal perforation, peritonitis and other complications, compared with the survivors (P<0.05). On the day of diagnosis, the nonsurvivors were more likely to have abnormal laboratory indicators than survivors (P<0.05). Age at diagnosis [odds ratio (OR)=0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.836-0.99], respiratory failure (OR=2.76, 95% CI=1.10-6.92), and peritonitis (OR=26.36, 95% CI=7.52-173.92) had significant independent contributions to death. A score model predicting death was developed, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.869 (95% CI=0.803-0.935). All infants with scores ≥8 died.

conclusionYounger age at diagnosis, peritonitis, and respiratory failure might be risk factors for the mortality of full-term infants with NEC. Infants with a predictive score of 8 were at high risk for death.