ArticleAmerican journal of preventive medicine2016
Gauging the Effect of U.S. Tobacco Control Policies From 1965 Through 2014 Using SimSmoke.
Article in American journal of preventive medicine, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework.Tobacco control · 2023Pooled it
- Trial
- SimSmoke simulation models by educational status: past and future US trends and the potential role of policy.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- Realistic expectations for changes to average human lifespan in the near future.Biogerontology · 2025Article
- SimSmoke simulation models distinguished by race/ethnicity: past and future trends and the potential role of policy.Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs · 2025Article
- Social network dynamics of tobacco smoking and alcohol use among persons involved with the criminal legal system (PCLS): A modeling study.International journal of alcohol and drug research · 2024Article
- Clinic information, pathological, and imaging characteristics in 2 058 surgical patients with lung cancer from a single center.Zhong nan da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Central South University. Medical sciences · 2024Article
- Comparison of smoking prevalence in Canada before and after nicotine vaping product access using the SimSmoke model.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2023Article
- Gender disparities in incidence and projections of lung cancer in China and the United States from 1978 to 2032: an age-period-cohort analysis.Cancer causes & control : CCC · 2022Article
- Association of Adherence to Healthy Lifestyle Recommendations With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among Former Smokers.JAMA network open · 2022Article
- US Nicotine Vaping ProductInternational journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Confronting the burden of tobacco-related lung cancer in Europe in the next decades.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2021Article
- England SimSmoke: the impact of nicotine vaping on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in England.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2021Article
- Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model.Population health metrics · 2021Article
- Trends in disease burden of chronic myeloid leukemia at the global, regional, and national levels: a population-based epidemiologic study.Experimental hematology & oncology · 2020Article
- Examining the relationship of vaping to smoking initiation among US youth and young adults: a reality check.Tobacco control · 2019Article
- The Minnesota SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use.American journal of preventive medicine · 2019Article
- Smoking and Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States From 2015 to 2065: A Comparative Modeling Approach.Annals of internal medicine · 2018Article
- The US SimSmoke tobacco control policy model of smokeless tobacco and cigarette use.BMC public health · 2018Article
- Estimates of effectiveness and reach for 'return on investment' modelling of smoking cessation interventions using data from England.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
introductionThe year 2014 marked the 50th Anniversary of the first Surgeon General's Report. This paper estimates the effect of tobacco control policies in the U.S. after the 1964 Report using the SimSmoke tobacco control simulation model.
methodsSimSmoke uses National Health Interview Survey data from 1965 through 2012 on smoking prevalence, initiation, and cessation rates, and incorporates policies implemented since 1965. The model projects smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) from 1965 through 2065 and is validated against National Health Interview Survey data. Counterfactual scenarios with policies constant since 1965 and with individual policies are estimated. Analysis was conducted in February 2014.
resultsSimSmoke generally validated well during the time period from 1965 through 2012. As a result of all policies, smoking prevalence is estimated to have fallen by almost 55% by 2014, with a total of 2 million SADs averted from 1965 through 2014, increasing to 20.1 million SADs by 2065. The Fairness Doctrine is estimated to have reduced adult smoking prevalence by about 24% by 2014 and averted 10.4 million SADs by 2065, while price increases reduced smoking prevalence by 24% by 2014 and averted 7.3 million SADs by 2065. Smoke-free air laws, cessation treatment, and tobacco control spending individually reduced smoking rates by 3%-5.5% by 2014.
conclusionsBy 2014, SimSmoke predicts a 53% reduction in smoking rates and almost 2 million SADs averted due to polices implemented since the 1964 Surgeon General's Report, with most of the health benefit still to occur in future years.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.