Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26670239›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2015

Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project.

Francesca K de' Donato, Michela Leone, Matteo Scortichini, Manuela De Sario, Klea Katsouyanni, Timo Lanki, Xavier Basagaña, Ferran Ballester, Christofer Åström, Anna Paldy and 4 more

Abstract readEvaluation Study
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 52 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
52citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

52 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Regional Assessment of Temperature-Related Mortality in Finland.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018
    Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
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  19. Extreme Temperature and Mortality by Educational Attainment in Spain, 2012-2018.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2022
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Francesca K de' DonatoDepartment of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via di Santa Costanza 53, Rome 00198, Italy. f.dedonato@deplazio.it.
Michela LeoneDepartment of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via di Santa Costanza 53, Rome 00198, Italy. m.leone@deplazio.it.
Matteo ScortichiniDepartment of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via di Santa Costanza 53, Rome 00198, Italy. m.scortichini@deplazio.it.
Manuela De SarioDepartment of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via di Santa Costanza 53, Rome 00198, Italy. m.desario@deplazio.it.
Klea KatsouyanniDepartment of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Medical School, University of Athens, Athens 11527, Greece. kkatsouy@med.uoa.gr.
Timo LankiDepartment of Health Protection, National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Neulaniementie 4, PO Box 95, Kuopio 70701, Finland. timo.lanki@thl.fi.
Xavier BasagañaCentre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Doctor Aiguader 88, Barcelona 08003, Spain. xbasagana@creal.cat.
Ferran BallesterSpanish Consortium for Research on Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Melchor Fernández Almagro, 3-5, Madrid 28029, Spain. ballester_fer@gva.es.
Christofer ÅströmOccupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University, Umeå 90187, Sweden. christofer.astrom@umu.se.
Anna PaldyJozsef Fodor National Center of Public Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Department Of Biological Monitoring, Gyali ut 2-6, Po Box 64, Budapest 1097, Hungary. paldy.anna@oki.antsz.hu.
Mathilde PascalDepartment of Environmental Health (DSE), Institute de Veille Sanitaire, 12, rue du Val d'Osne, Saint Maurice 94415, France. m.pascal@invs.sante.fr.
Antonio GasparriniDepartment of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK. Antonio.Gasparrini@lshtm.ac.uk.
Bettina MenneWHO Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, Bonn D-53113, Germany. menneb@ecehbonn.euro.who.int.
Paola MichelozziDepartment of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via di Santa Costanza 53, Rome 00198, Italy. p.michelozzi@deplazio.it.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/M022625/1World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature-mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996-2002 and 2004-2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolEuropeFemaleHeat Stress DisordersHot TemperatureHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMiddle AgedMortalityadaptationattributable deathsclimate changeheatheat prevention plansmortality

Identifiers

PMID26670239
PMCPMC4690942

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.