SynthesisJournal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN2016
Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent ESRD Risk.
Synthesis in Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 71 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
71 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 123 citations in OpenAlex.
- Is eGFR Slope a Novel Predictor of Chronic Complications of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of diabetes research · 2024Pooled it
- Mathematical expansion and clinical application of chronic kidney disease stage as vector field.PloS one · 2024Pooled it
- Guidelines for clinical evaluation of chronic kidney disease : AMED research on regulatory science of pharmaceuticals and medical devices.Clinical and experimental nephrology · 2018Guideline
- Serum potassium and adverse outcomes across the range of kidney function: a CKD Prognosis Consortium meta-analysis.European heart journal · 2018Pooled it
- Predictive role of baseline serum creatinine-to-cystatin C ratio for renal dysfunction incidence in patients with acute ischemic stroke.BMC nephrology · 2026Trial
- Time in target range of systolic blood pressure and eGFR slope in patients with type 2 diabetes.Hypertension research : official journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension · 2025Trial
- Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Kidney Disease Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: Post Hoc Analyses From the DECLARE-TIMI 58 Trial.Diabetes care · 2022Trial
- The relationship between eGFR slope and subsequent risk of vascular outcomes and all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes: the ADVANCE-ON study.Diabetologia · 2019Trial
- A U-Shaped Association: The First-Year eGFR Slope and Mortality Risk in Multiple Myeloma.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
- Identification of end-stage renal disease-associated loci in X chromosome: an X chromosome-wide association study.MedScience · 2026Article
- Prediction of estimated glomerular filtration rate slope and kidney prognosis of patients with chronic kidney disease.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Heterogeneity of Estimated GFR Slopes According to Etiology, Estimated GFR and Urinary Albumin-to-Creatinine Ratio in a Large Cohort of Patients With CKD.Kidney international reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Epigenetic aging mediates the association between life course socioeconomic status and decrements in kidney function across a decade.GeroScience · 2026Article
- Circulating Extracellular Vesicle MicroRNAs as Predictive Biomarkers for Kidney and Cardiovascular Events.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2026Article
- Article
- Revised renal stratification and progression models for predicting long-term renal outcomes in immunoglobulin light chain amyloidosis.Haematologica · 2025Article
- Article
- Evaluating the impact of Arteriovenous Fistula (AVF) creation on kidney function.Journal of nephrology · 2025Observational
- Evaluating Renal Disease in Pediatric-Onset Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis: Disease Course, Outcomes, and Predictors of Outcome.Arthritis & rheumatology (Hoboken, N.J.) · 2025Article
11 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
13 authors at 9 institutions in 7 countries.
Funding
Abstract
eGFR is a robust predictor of ESRD risk. However, the prognostic information gained from the past trajectory (slope) beyond that of the current eGFR is unclear. We examined 22 cohorts to determine the association of past slopes and current eGFR level with subsequent ESRD. We modeled hazard ratios as a spline function of slopes, adjusting for demographic variables, eGFR, and comorbidities. We used random effects meta-analyses to combine results across studies stratified by cohort type. We calculated the absolute risk of ESRD at 5 years after the last eGFR using the weighted average baseline risk. Overall, 1,080,223 participants experienced 5163 ESRD events during a mean follow-up of 2.0 years. In CKD cohorts, a slope of -6 versus 0 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year over the previous 3 years (a decline of 18 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) versus no decline) associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of ESRD of 2.28 (95% confidence interval, 1.88 to 2.76). In contrast, a current eGFR of 30 versus 50 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (a difference of 20 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 19.9 (95% confidence interval, 13.6 to 29.1). Past decline contributed more to the absolute risk of ESRD at lower than higher levels of current eGFR. In conclusion, during a follow-up of 2 years, current eGFR associates more strongly with future ESRD risk than the magnitude of past eGFR decline, but both contribute substantially to the risk of ESRD, especially at eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m(2).
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.