ArticleBMC family practice2015
Risk of exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a primary care retrospective cohort study.
Article in BMC family practice, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Synergistic Effects of Integrating Fire Dragon Cupping with Non-Invasive Ventilation on Lung Function and Inflammatory Response in COPD Patients with Hypoxemia: A Single-Center Retrospective Study.Journal of inflammation research · 2026Article
- Prognostic Models for Disease Progression and Outcomes in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Review
- Development and validation of a nomogram model for mortality prediction in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients: A prospective observational study in the RealDTC cohort.Journal of global health · 2024Observational
- Controlling Nutritional Status Score as a Predictor for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation Risk in Elderly Patients.Metabolites · 2023Article
- Analyses of Factors Associated with Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Review.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2023Review
- The Impact of Diabetes Mellitus in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Hospitalization.Journal of clinical medicine · 2021Article
- Risk Factors for Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Industrial Regions of China: A Multicenter Cross-Sectional Study.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2020Article
- [Prevalence and characteristics of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in non-smokers].Atencion primaria · 2019Article
- Using Demographic Factors and Comorbidities to Develop a Predictive Model for ICU Mortality in Patients with Acute Exacerbation COPD.AMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings. AMIA Symposium · 2018Article
- Lung ageing and COPD: is there a role for ageing in abnormal tissue repair?European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2017Review
- Call to action: improving primary care for women with COPD.NPJ primary care respiratory medicine · 2017Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe risk of exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) depends on the severity of disease and other less well known factors. Predictive models of exacerbation are more accurate than the forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1). The objective was to design a model that predicts the risk of exacerbation in COPD.
methodsRetrospective cohort study with data from the electronic medical records of patients diagnosed with COPD in the province of Lleida (Spain). A total of 2501 patients were followed during 3 years. The dependent variable was acute exacerbation; independent variables were: clinical parameters, spirometry results, severity of disease, influenza and 23-valent pneumococcal immunisation, comorbidities, smoking and history of exacerbation. The association of these variables with disease exacerbation was measured by the adjusted odds ratio using a logistic regression model.
resultsMean age at the start of the study was 68.38 years (SD = 11.60) and 74.97% patients were men; severity of disease was considered mild in 50.82% of patients, moderate in 35.31%, severe in 9.44% and very severe in 4.44%. During the three year study period up to 83.17% of patients experienced at least one exacerbation. Predictive factors in the model were age, gender, previous exacerbations, influenza and 23-valent pneumococcal immunisations, number of previous visits to the General Practice and severity (GOLD), with an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of 0.70.
conclusionsThis model can identify patients at high risk of acute exacerbation. Preventive measures and modification of treatment in these high-risk patients would improve survival.
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