Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26625940›Full record

Trial reportBMC geriatrics2015

Frailty predicts short-term incidence of future falls among British community-dwelling older people: a prospective cohort study nested within a randomised controlled trial.

Gotaro Kojima, Denise Kendrick, Dawn A Skelton, Richard W Morris, Sheena Gawler, Steve Iliffe

Abstract readRandomized Controlled Trial
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Trial report in BMC geriatrics, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 47 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
47citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

47 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  18. Frailty as a Predictor of Adverse Outcomes among Spanish Community-Dwelling Older Adults.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Article
  19. Medical and Social Factors Associated With Referral for Elder Abuse Services in a National Health Care System.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2022
    Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Gotaro KojimaDepartment of Primary Care and Population Health, University College London (Royal Free Campus), Rowland Hill Street, London, NW3 2PF, UK. gotarokojima@yahoo.co.jp.
Denise KendrickSchool of Medicine, Division of Primary Care, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK. Denise.Kendrick@nottingham.ac.uk.
Dawn A SkeltonSchool of Health and Life Sciences, Institute of Applied Health Research, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, UK. Dawn.Skelton@gcu.ac.uk.
Richard W MorrisSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. richard.morris@bristol.ac.uk.
Sheena GawlerDepartment of Primary Care and Population Health, University College London (Royal Free Campus), Rowland Hill Street, London, NW3 2PF, UK. s.gawler@ucl.ac.uk.
Steve IliffeDepartment of Primary Care and Population Health, University College London (Royal Free Campus), Rowland Hill Street, London, NW3 2PF, UK. s.iliffe@ucl.ac.uk.

Funding

Department of Health 06/36/04
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAlthough population-based studies have shown frailty predicted future falls, their follow-up periods were one year or longer and short-term fall risks associated with frailty are unknown.

methodsA prospective cohort study nested within a randomised controlled trial was conducted to examine associations between frailty and short-term incident future falls among community-dwelling older people. Two hundred forty eight community-dwelling people > =65 years without history of > =three falls and allocated to a usual care arm of exercise intervention trial were prospectively monitored for falls over 24 weeks. Frailty index (FI) was constructed from 40 deficits at baseline. The future fall risks according to frailty status was examined using logistic regression models.

resultsOf 248 participants, 46 were classified as frail and 57 had one or more falls during follow-up. Both each 0.01 increase in FI and frailty defined as FI > =0.25 were significantly associated with higher risks of future falls in multivariate logistic regression models adjusted for age, gender and history of two falls in the previous year (odds ratio (OR) = 1.05, 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) = 1.02-1.07, p < 0.001; OR = 3.04, 95 % CI = 1.53-6.02, p = 0.001, respectively). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed FI predicted future falls with fair accuracy with area under ROC curve of 0.62 (95 % CI = 0.53-0.71, p < 0.01).

conclusionsFrailty was a significant and independent predictor of short-term future falls among community-dwelling older people who had volunteered for a physical activity study. It is important for healthcare practitioners to recognise frailty as a risk factor of imminent future falling even in older people who appear to be ageing well.

Indexed as

Accidental FallsFrail ElderlyAgedAged, 80 and overAgingCohort StudiesEthnicityExercise TherapyFemaleHumansIncidenceIndependent LivingLogistic ModelsMaleProspective StudiesRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID26625940
PMCPMC4667521

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.