ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2015
Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 48 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
48 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Beyond the Mosquito: Social Determinants of Health and Global Strategies for Aedes-Borne Disease Control.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2026Pooled it
- A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- A systematic review of dengue outbreak prediction models: Current scenario and future directions.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Sociodemographic, climatic variability and lower respiratory tract infections: a systematic literature review.International journal of biometeorology · 2019Pooled it
- Machine learning reveals temperature as a key predictor of dengue risk across Thailand's provinces: A 20-year analysis.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Influence of Both La Nina and Island Isolation During COVID-19 on the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases in New Caledonia.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal patterns and forecasted trends of dengue in Saudi Arabia: a national surveillance study, 2012-2024.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Dengue hospitalizations in Brazil: Forecasting with climatic and physicians' digital search data under real-world reporting delays.PLOS digital health · 2026Article
- Investigating antibody cross-reactivity and transmission dynamics of alphaviruses and flaviviruses using a multiplex serological assay.Nature communications · 2026Article
- The Effect of Increased Temperature on Dengue Virus in the VectorTropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Spatial Risk Factors of Vector-Borne Diseases in Pacific Island Countries and Territories: A Scoping Review.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Review
- Understanding the social determinants of Aedes-borne diseases in Iran: A qualitative exploration of challenges and policy solutions.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Dengue Fever Resurgence in Iran: An Integrative Review of Causative Factors and Control Strategies.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Review
- Modelling the spatial risk of malaria through probability distribution ofEmerging microbes & infections · 2024Article
- Interaction of Human Behavioral Factors Shapes the Transmission of Arboviruses byPathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Review
- Socio-economic factors and its influence on the association between temperature and dengue incidence in 61 Provinces of the Philippines, 2010-2019.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Observational
- Can the establishment of national sanitary cities better resist the impact of COVID-19?Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Models of spatial analysis for vector-borne diseases studies: A systematic review.Veterinary world · 2022Article
- Amborella gene presence/absence variation is associated with abiotic stress responses that may contribute to environmental adaptation.The New phytologist · 2022Article
- Predict the incidence of Guillain Barré Syndrome and arbovirus infection in Mexico, 2014-2019.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
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11 authors.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND/
objectivesUnderstanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon.
methodsWe used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections.
resultsThe spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3 °C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double.
conclusionIn New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries.
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