ArticlePsychological medicine2016
Which adolescents develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood? Using population-representative longitudinal data to inform universal risk assessment.
Article in Psychological medicine, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 80 citations in OpenAlex.
- Threats to external validity in the neuroprediction of substance use treatment outcomes.The American journal of drug and alcohol abuse · 2023Pooled it
- Patterns of brain function associated with cannabis cue-reactivity in regular cannabis users: a systematic review of fMRI studies.Psychopharmacology · 2021Pooled it
- Patterns, Predictors, and Correlates of Problematic Alcohol Use and Remission From Adolescence to Early Midlife.Alcohol, clinical & experimental research · 2026Article
- A Bayesian Learning Model for Joint Risk Prediction of Alcohol and Cannabis Use Disorders.Statistics in medicine · 2026Article
- Screening Children for Risk of Frequent Substance Use in Young Adulthood: A 17-Year Prospective, National Study.Journal of studies on alcohol and drugs · 2026Article
- The role of health behaviors in links between stress and epigenetic aging.Brain, behavior, & immunity - health · 2026Article
- Estimated Prevalence of Substance Use Disorders Among US Adolescents and Emerging Adults by Substance Class, Severity, and Age, 2022.JAACAP open · 2025Article
- Article
- Problematic substance use in depressed adolescents: Prevalence and clinical correlates.Addictive behaviors reports · 2024Article
- Exploring Health Informatics in the Battle against Drug Addiction: Digital Solutions for the Rising Concern.Journal of personalized medicine · 2024Review
- Development and evaluation of a risk algorithm predicting alcohol dependence after early onset of regular alcohol use.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2023Article
- Diminished Structural Brain Integrity in Long-term Cannabis Users Reflects a History of Polysubstance Use.Biological psychiatry · 2022Article
- Clinical, environmental, and genetic risk factors for substance use disorders: characterizing combined effects across multiple cohorts.Molecular psychiatry · 2022Article
- Explainable machine learning analysis reveals sex and gender differences in the phenotypic and neurobiological markers of Cannabis Use Disorder.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Validating a brief screening measure for early-onset substance use during adolescence in a diverse, nationwide birth cohort.Addictive behaviors · 2022Article
- Ketamine use disorder: preclinical, clinical, and neuroimaging evidence to support proposed mechanisms of actions.Intelligent medicine · 2022Article
- Joint risk prediction for hazardous use of alcohol, cannabis, and tobacco among adolescents: A preliminary study using statistical and machine learning.Preventive medicine reports · 2022Article
- Article
- Shared Environmental Influences on Electronic Cigarette Use Among Adolescent and Young Adult Females.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2021Article
- [Pediatric pain treatment and prevention for hospitalized children].Schmerz (Berlin, Germany) · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 7 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundTo our knowledge, there are no universal screening tools for substance dependence that (1) were developed using a population-based sample, (2) estimate total risk briefly and inexpensively by incorporating a relatively small number of well-established risk factors, and (3) aggregate risk factors using a simple algorithm. We created a universal screening tool that incorporates these features to identify adolescents at risk for persistent substance dependence in adulthood.
methodParticipants were members of a representative cohort of 1037 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972-1973 and followed prospectively to age 38 years, with 95% retention. We assessed a small set of childhood and adolescent risk factors: family history of substance dependence, childhood psychopathology (conduct disorder, depression), early exposure to substances, frequent substance use in adolescence, sex, and childhood socioeconomic status. We defined the outcome (persistent substance dependence in adulthood) as dependence on one or more of alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, or hard drugs at ⩾3 assessment ages: 21, 26, 32, and 38 years.
resultsA cumulative risk index, a simple sum of nine childhood and adolescent risk factors, predicted persistent substance dependence in adulthood with considerable accuracy (AUC = 0.80).
conclusionsA cumulative risk score can accurately predict which adolescents in the general population will develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.