ArticleScience advances2015
Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa.
Article in Science advances, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Artificial intelligence for climate-health early warning systems in the Horn of Africa: opportunities, challenges, and a roadmap for action.Globalization and health · 2026Article
- Machine learning-based paleobathymetric reconstructions using archaeal lipid biomarkers.Science advances · 2026Article
- Chronic Stress and Severe Water Insecurity During the Historic 2022 Drought in Northern Kenya Were Associated With Inflammation Among Daasanach Seminomadic Pastoralists.American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council · 2025Article
- The Role of Climate Change and Its Sensitivity on Long-Term Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Vegetation and Drought Changing Trends over East Asia.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Article
- Effect of seasonal variation on yield and leaf quality of tea clone (Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze) in South West Ethiopia.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Water Resources in Africa under Global Change: Monitoring Surface Waters from Space.Surveys in geophysics · 2023Review
- Article
- Adaptive drift and barrier-avoidance by a fly-forage migrant along a climate-driven flyway.Movement ecology · 2021Article
- Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa.Nature communications · 2020Article
- Emergence of an equatorial mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean.Science advances · 2020Article
- Classification and characterisation of livestock production systems in northern Tanzania.PloS one · 2020Article
- Long-term trends in rainfall and temperature using high-resolution climate datasets in East Africa.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- Signatures of human impact on self-organized vegetation in the Horn of Africa.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Changes in Ugandan Climate Rainfall at the Village and Forest Level.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Rainfall trends and variation in the Maasai Mara ecosystem and their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics.PloS one · 2018Article
- A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era.Scientific data · 2017Article
- El Niño and the shifting geography of cholera in Africa.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2017Article
- The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations--a new environmental record for monitoring extremes.Scientific data · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The recent decline in Horn of Africa rainfall during the March-May "long rains" season has fomented drought and famine, threatening food security in an already vulnerable region. Some attribute this decline to anthropogenic forcing, whereas others maintain that it is a feature of internal climate variability. We show that the rate of drying in the Horn of Africa during the 20th century is unusual in the context of the last 2000 years, is synchronous with recent global and regional warming, and therefore may have an anthropogenic component. In contrast to 20th century drying, climate models predict that the Horn of Africa will become wetter as global temperatures rise. The projected increase in rainfall mainly occurs during the September-November "short rains" season, in response to large-scale weakening of the Walker circulation. Most of the models overestimate short rains precipitation while underestimating long rains precipitation, causing the Walker circulation response to unrealistically dominate the annual mean. Our results highlight the need for accurate simulation of the seasonal cycle and an improved understanding of the dynamics of the long rains season to predict future rainfall in the Horn of Africa.
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