ArticleJournal of medical Internet research2015
Forecasting the Incidence of Dementia and Dementia-Related Outpatient Visits With Google Trends: Evidence From Taiwan.
Article in Journal of medical Internet research, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The Application of Internet-Based Sources for Public Health Surveillance (Infoveillance): Systematic Review.Journal of medical Internet research · 2020Pooled it
- Assessing the Methods, Tools, and Statistical Approaches in Google Trends Research: Systematic Review.Journal of medical Internet research · 2018Pooled it
- Google Trends and seasonal patterns of dementia in Taiwan and globally.BMC psychology · 2025Article
- Google search interests and new cases of COVID-19 in Bangladesh: a vector autoregression analysis for disease surveillance.BMC research notes · 2025Article
- Real-Time Monitoring of Infectious Disease Outbreaks with a Combination of Google Trends Search Results and the Moving Epidemic Method: A Respiratory Syncytial Virus Case Study.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Searching for HIV and AIDS Health Information in South Africa, 2004-2019: Analysis of Google and Wikipedia Search Trends.JMIR formative research · 2022Article
- Googling for Neurological Disorders: From Seeking Health-Related Information to Patient Empowerment, Advocacy, and Open, Public Self-Disclosure in the Neurology 2.0 Era.Journal of medical Internet research · 2021Article
- Global Public Interest and Seasonal Variations in Alzheimer's Disease: Evidence From Google Trends.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
- Use of Patient-Reported Symptoms from an Online Symptom Tracking Tool for Dementia Severity Staging: Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Approach.Journal of medical Internet research · 2020Article
- Web Search Trends of Implementing the Patient Autonomy Act in Taiwan.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Article
- Article
- Infodemiology and Infoveillance: Scoping Review.Journal of medical Internet research · 2020Article
- Lifestyle Disease Surveillance Using Population Search Behavior: Feasibility Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2020Article
- Access to Primary Care and Internet Searches for Walk-In Clinics and Emergency Departments in Canada: Observational Study Using Google Trends and Population Health Survey Data.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2019Article
- Article
- Monitoring Interest in Herpes Zoster Vaccination: Analysis of Google Search Data.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2018Article
- Integrating Smart Health in the US Health Care System: Infodemiology Study of Asthma Monitoring in the Google Era.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2018Article
- Big Data and Dementia: Charting the Route Ahead for Research, Ethics, and Policy.Frontiers in medicine · 2018Article
- Some Innovative Approaches for Public Health and Epidemiology Informatics.Yearbook of medical informatics · 2016Article
- Disease Monitoring and Health Campaign Evaluation Using Google Search Activities for HIV and AIDS, Stroke, Colorectal Cancer, and Marijuana Use in Canada: A Retrospective Observational Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundGoogle Trends has demonstrated the capability to both monitor and predict epidemic outbreaks. The connection between Internet searches for dementia information and dementia incidence and dementia-related outpatient visits remains unknown.
objectiveThis study aimed to determine whether Google Trends could provide insight into trends in dementia incidence and related outpatient visits in Taiwan. We investigated and validated the local search terms that would be the best predictors of new dementia cases and outpatient visits. We further evaluated the nowcasting (ie, forecasting the present) and forecasting effects of Google Trends search trends for new dementia cases and outpatient visits. The long-term goal is to develop a surveillance system to help early detection and interventions for dementia in Taiwan.
methodsThis study collected (1) dementia data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database and (2) local Internet search data from Google Trends, both from January 2009 to December 2011. We investigated and validated search terms that would be the best predictors of new dementia cases and outpatient visits. We then evaluated both the nowcasting and the forecasting effects of Google Trends search trends through cross-correlation analysis of the dementia incidence and outpatient visit data with the Google Trends data.
resultsThe search term "dementia + Alzheimer's disease" demonstrated a 3-month lead effect for new dementia cases and a 6-month lead effect for outpatient visits (r=.503, P=.002; r=.431, P=.009, respectively). When gender was included in the analysis, the search term "dementia" showed 6-month predictive power for new female dementia cases (r=.520, P=.001), but only a nowcasting effect for male cases (r=.430, P=.009). The search term "neurology" demonstrated a 3-month leading effect for new dementia cases (r=.433, P=.008), for new male dementia cases (r=.434, P=.008), and for outpatient visits (r=.613, P<.001).
conclusionsGoogle Trends established a plausible relationship between search terms and new dementia cases and dementia-related outpatient visits in Taiwan. This data may allow the health care system in Taiwan to prepare for upcoming outpatient and dementia screening visits. In addition, the validated search term results can be used to provide caregivers with caregiving-related health, skills, and social welfare information by embedding dementia-related search keywords in relevant online articles.
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