ArticleBMC medical research methodology2015
Development and demonstration of a state model for the estimation of incidence of partly undetected chronic diseases.
Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Incidence of arterial hypertension in Germany 2009-2018 based on prevalence data from 70 million patients from the statutory health insurance.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2026Article
- Estimating the burden of underdiagnosis within England: A modelling study of linked primary care data.PloS one · 2025Article
- Development and validation of the risk engine for an Australian Health Economics Model of Osteoporosis.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2021Article
- Analysing detection of chronic diseases with prolonged sub-clinical periods: modelling and application to hypertension in the U.S.BMC medical research methodology · 2019Article
- Illness-death model: statistical perspective and differential equations.Lifetime data analysis · 2018Article
- Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060.Population health metrics · 2018Article
- Comparison of surveillance-based metrics for the assessment and monitoring of disease detection: simulation study about type 2 diabetes.BMC medical research methodology · 2017Article
- Estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in American Indians with type 2 diabetes.PloS one · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundEstimation of incidence of the state of undiagnosed chronic disease provides a crucial missing link for the monitoring of chronic disease epidemics and determining the degree to which changes in prevalence are affected or biased by detection.
methodsWe developed a four-part compartment model for undiagnosed cases of irreversible chronic diseases with a preclinical state that precedes the diagnosis. Applicability of the model is tested in a simulation study of a hypothetical chronic disease and using diabetes data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS).
resultsA two dimensional system of partial differential equations forms the basis for estimating incidence of the undiagnosed and diagnosed disease states from the prevalence of the associated states. In the simulation study we reach very good agreement between the estimates and the true values. Application to the HRS data demonstrates practical relevance of the methods. DISCUSSION: We have demonstrated the applicability of the modeling framework in a simulation study and in the analysis of the Health and Retirement Study. The model provides insight into the epidemiology of undiagnosed chronic diseases.
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